Recent Updates
- US: Wholesale Trade (Feb), Producer Prices (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Industry Detail (Mar)
- Canada: Investment in Building Construction (Feb), Labor Force Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 31, 2019
Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3% (4.3% y/y) during April following a 1.1% March gain, revised from 0.9%. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Nondurable goods spending strengthened 0.7% (3.8% y/y) reflecting a 6.7% rise (4.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline & other energy products. Apparel purchases held steady (2.2% y/y) after strengthening 1.3%, and spending at restaurants edged 0.1% higher (2.2% y/y) following a 1.0% rise. Outlays on services rose 0.3% (4.9% y/y) on the heels of a 0.6% surge. Recreation services spending rose 0.2% (3.3% y/y) following a 1.9% surge. Housing & utilities outlays inched 0.1% higher (4.0% y/y) following three months of strong increase. Health care spending rose a weakened 0.4% (4.8% y/y) and outlays on transportation services rose 0.3% (4.1% y/y), the same as in March. Spending on durable goods offset these gains with a 0.8% decline (+1.0% y/y) following a 3.6% surge. Spending on motor vehicle & parts weakened 2.0% (-0.3% y/y) following a 9.2% jump (1.8% y/y). Outlays on autos have declined in four of the last five months. Spending on home furnishings & appliances eased 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) after a 0.9% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays fell 0.2% (+3.3% y/y) after a 0.8% rise.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% (1.5% y/y), the strongest increase since January of last year. The price index excluding food & energy increased 0.2% (1.6% y/y), the largest rise since December. Nondurable product prices jumped 0.5% (0.2% y/y) as fuel prices surged 5.1% (3.2% y/y), strong for a second straight month. This strength was offset by a 0.9% decline (-3.6% y/y) in the clothing & footwear price index. Food & beverage prices also were off by 0.3% (+0.8% y/y). The services price index rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y), equaling the strongest monthly rise in roughly ten years. Both transportation services and finance & insurance costs jumped 1.2% and 2.7% y/y. Recreation services prices strengthened 0.4% (2.8% y/y). Housing & utilities prices rose a steady 0.3% (3.1% y/y) but the health care price index inched just 0.1% higher (1.4% y/y) for a second straight month. A 0.4% decline (-1.8% y/y) in the durable goods price index offset some of these strong price gains, extending many years of price declines across most durable product categories.
Personal income increased 0.5% (3.9% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% rise. The 3.9% y/y gain was below growth during 2018 and 2017. A 0.3% increase had been expected. Wages & salaries increased 0.3% but y/y growth of 3.6% remained below the 5.1% high in August 2017. Proprietors income held steady (2.3% y/y) after three straight months of decline. Rental income improved 0.2% (5.4% y/y) after three consecutive months of strong increase. Receipts on assets jumped 1.6% (2.6% y/y). A 2.3% gain (1.6% y/y) in interest income accompanied a 0.7% rise (4.0% y/y) in dividend earnings. Personal transfer receipts increased 0.6% (7.2% y/y) for the third straight month. Medicare receipts surged another 0.9% (10.6% y/y). Income from Social Security rose 0.2% (6.4% y/y), and Medicaid receipts strengthened 1.4% (5.4% y/y). Jobless insurance income declined 4.0% (-8.4% y/y) after a 0.8% drop.
In constant dollars, personal spending held steady m/m (2.7% y/y) following a 0.9% jump. Real personal disposable income rose 0.1% (2.2% y/y) after a 0.2% decline.
The strength in spending held the personal savings rate at 6.2%, below December's 7.4% high. The level of personal savings fell 5.9% y/y.
The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database
Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.6 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.9 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.3 | 1.1 | -0.0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
Personal Saving Rate | 6.2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 6.8 (Apr.'18) | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Real Disposable Income | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | -0.0 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 |