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Economy in Brief
U.S. FHFA House Prices Continued to Rise in April
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.6% during April...
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May...
U.S. Energy Prices Decline
The AAA retail price of gasoline fell seven cents to $4.94 per gallon (+60.4% y/y) in the week ended June 24...
French Consumer Worries Intensify in the Wake of Russia Attack
French confidence is weak in June 2022...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Firm in May
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods exhibited unexpected improvement in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 24, 2019
Factory sector activity continued to weaken last month. New orders for durable goods fell 2.1% during April and were unchanged y/y. A 1.7% rise in orders during March was revised from a 2.7% gain reported initially. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for a 2.0% decline in April durable goods orders.
A 5.9% shortfall (-0.3% y/y) in transportation sector orders led total new orders lower, reversing its March rise. Nondefense aircraft & parts orders fell by one-quarter and they were down by one-third y/y. Defense aircraft orders fell 2.4% (+40.5% y/y). New orders for motor vehicles & parts declined 3.4% (+2.9% y/y) following a 0.4% gain.
Orders for nondefense capital goods weakened 5.0% (-4.3% y/y) and reversed the 2.6% rise during March. Orders excluding aircraft eased 0.9% after two straight 0.3% increases. The y/y increase decelerated to 1.3%, the weakest rise in just over two years. It was below the peak 13.2% y/y rate of increase in September 2017.
Elsewhere in the durable goods sector, primary metals orders declined 0.8% (-4.9% y/y), but orders for fabricated metals increased 0.4% (-1.1% y/y). Computer & electronic product bookings eased 0.4% (+4.8% y/y) due to a 5.5% decline (+7.7% y/y) in communication equipment orders. Orders for computers & related products rose 4.0% (-2.6% y/y). Orders for machinery gained 0.1% and were unchanged y/y. Electrical equipment orders rose 0.9% (2.8% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods declined 1.6% (+2.3% y/y) following a 0.5% fall. A 4.1% weakening (+3.6% y/y) in transportation sector shipments led the total lower. Shipments excluding transportation fell 0.2% (+1.7% y/y). Unfilled orders for durable goods eased 0.1% (+2.1% y/y) both including and excluding transportation. Inventories of durable goods increased 0.4% (5.0% y/y) led by a 1.1% gain in transportation sector inventories. Inventories excluding transportation rose 0.1% (4.7% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | -2.1 | 1.7 | -2.6 | -0.0 | 7.9 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | -5.9 | 5.9 | -6.7 | -0.3 | 9.8 | 3.2 | -0.6 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 6.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -5.0 | 2.6 | -5.9 | -4.3 | 5.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | -1.6 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | -2.3 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | -3.0 |
