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Economy in Brief
ZEW Assessments of Conditions and Growth Remain Weak and Troubling
Growth is precarious; don’t be nefarious...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Remain Under Pressure
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index declined 1.4% during the last four weeks...
U.S. Import Prices Rise With Oil Costs; Export Prices Fall
Import prices increased 0.2% (-1.6% y/y) during September...
U.S. Home Affordability Continues to Rise With Lower Mortgage Rates
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index increased 3.3% to 160.4 during August...
German Price Trends Are Affirmed at a Slow Steady Pace
Germany is renowned for its aversion to inflation...
by Tom Moeller May 24, 2019
Factory sector activity continued to weaken last month. New orders for durable goods fell 2.1% during April and were unchanged y/y. A 1.7% rise in orders during March was revised from a 2.7% gain reported initially. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for a 2.0% decline in April durable goods orders.
A 5.9% shortfall (-0.3% y/y) in transportation sector orders led total new orders lower, reversing its March rise. Nondefense aircraft & parts orders fell by one-quarter and they were down by one-third y/y. Defense aircraft orders fell 2.4% (+40.5% y/y). New orders for motor vehicles & parts declined 3.4% (+2.9% y/y) following a 0.4% gain.
Orders for nondefense capital goods weakened 5.0% (-4.3% y/y) and reversed the 2.6% rise during March. Orders excluding aircraft eased 0.9% after two straight 0.3% increases. The y/y increase decelerated to 1.3%, the weakest rise in just over two years. It was below the peak 13.2% y/y rate of increase in September 2017.
Elsewhere in the durable goods sector, primary metals orders declined 0.8% (-4.9% y/y), but orders for fabricated metals increased 0.4% (-1.1% y/y). Computer & electronic product bookings eased 0.4% (+4.8% y/y) due to a 5.5% decline (+7.7% y/y) in communication equipment orders. Orders for computers & related products rose 4.0% (-2.6% y/y). Orders for machinery gained 0.1% and were unchanged y/y. Electrical equipment orders rose 0.9% (2.8% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods declined 1.6% (+2.3% y/y) following a 0.5% fall. A 4.1% weakening (+3.6% y/y) in transportation sector shipments led the total lower. Shipments excluding transportation fell 0.2% (+1.7% y/y). Unfilled orders for durable goods eased 0.1% (+2.1% y/y) both including and excluding transportation. Inventories of durable goods increased 0.4% (5.0% y/y) led by a 1.1% gain in transportation sector inventories. Inventories excluding transportation rose 0.1% (4.7% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | -2.1 | 1.7 | -2.6 | -0.0 | 7.9 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | -5.9 | 5.9 | -6.7 | -0.3 | 9.8 | 3.2 | -0.6 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 6.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -5.0 | 2.6 | -5.9 | -4.3 | 5.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | -1.6 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | -2.3 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | -3.0 |
