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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips in January
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Charles Steindel May 23, 2019
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity again show that growth is less intensely centered in the West. Over the 12 months ending in March, Nevada is once again the leader, with a striking 5.4% rise, but West Virginia, with a 5.2% gain, was not far behind, and one large eastern state (Massachusetts) was third. Thirty states—including those with the four largest economies (California, Texas, New York, and Florida)—saw gains between 2 and 4%, roughly within one point of the national increase of 3.1%. Once again, Hawaii was the only state to see a decline, while Louisiana was the only other state with an increase of less than 1 percent.
Nevada was also the top-growing state over the 3 months ending in April, with an increase of 1.9%, though Vermont was virtually equal at 1.8% (before rounding the two were even closer). Fourteen states report gains above 1%, which is a hefty increase in such a short time span. None of the big 4, though, was in this group (Pennsylvania was the largest member). Hawaii, Kansas, Michigan, and Minnesota saw declines in their indexes over this period. Twenty states, including the four largest, had gains in the rand of .5 to 1 percent, which arguable correspondes to reasonably steady growth.
West Virginia's remarkable March-April increase of 1% led the nation, followed by Nevada's .9%. increase. Six states had declines, none appearing to be of any marked degree (Michigan's -.2% was the lowest).
In sum, the Philadelphia Fed measures show growth is widespread across the nation. The indexes are largely reflective of the data on state payrolls, average manufacturing hours, unemployment rates, and real wages and salaries. The long-term trend of a state's index is set to match that of its real GDP.