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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 23, 2019
The labor market remains on a firm footing. Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased 1,000 to 211,000 (-7.6% y/y) during the week ended May 18 from an unrevised 212,000 in the previous week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 220,250 and reversed the increase to 225,000 during the prior week.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey week for May nonfarm payrolls. Claims rose 18,000 (9.3%) from the April survey period. During the last 20 years, there has been a 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 12,000 to 1.676 million (-4.2% y/y) in the week ending May 11 from 1.664 million in the prior week, revised from 1.660 million. The four-week moving average of claimants increased to 1.674 million, the highest level in four weeks.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at the record low of 1.2%, where it's been for twelve months. The series dates back to 1970.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending May 4, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.29%), Nebraska (0.32%), Florida (0.40%), North Carolina (0.43%) and Indiana (0.45%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.55%), Connecticut (1.75%), California ( 1.94%), New Jersey (1.97%), and Alaska (2.38%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 0.90% in Texas, 1.25% in New York and 1.47% in Illinois. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 05/18/19 | 05/11/19 | 05/04/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 211 | 212 | 228 | -7.6 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,676 | 1,664 | -4.2 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |