Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 21, 2019
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions at the company level fell to 28.1 during May after rising slightly in April. These figures remain below the high of 45.7 reached in September of last year. The index of expected business conditions rose to 56.9, a three-month high.
Weakness in the overall survey reflected declines in most of the sub-series. The new orders index declined to the lowest level since January. The sales measure weakened to a three-month low and unfilled orders fell sharply. The inventories measure fell to nearly a three-year low.
The labor market measures were mixed. The full-time permanent employment improved slightly and has been trending upward for two years. The part-time/temporary employment and the workweek figures fell m/m, but also have been trending higher. The wages & benefits measure was little changed m/m, well below last year's highs.
On the pricing front, the prices paid measure declined m/m and was below the 2018 high. The prices received index improved markedly.
The capital expenditure measures on both plant & equipment improved m/m but remained well below the highs registered in earlier years.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. So, readings above zero indicate more positive than negative responses. These indexes have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index, SA) | May | Apr | Mar | May'18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Activity - Company | 28.1 | 39.2 | 38.3 | 38.1 | 33.6 | 27.3 | 19.7 |
New Orders | 10.6 | 25.4 | 24.5 | 32.1 | 24.3 | 19.1 | 15.8 |
Sales or Revenue | 26.6 | 37.2 | 42.5 | 34.0 | 30.9 | 27.9 | 16.1 |
Inventories | -3.2 | 0.8 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
Number of Full-Time Permanent Employees | 20.5 | 18.3 | 33.3 | 7.9 | 18.2 | 14.8 | 11.7 |
Prices Paid | 25.9 | 27.1 | 28.0 | 32.8 | 28.3 | 21.4 | 17.6 |
Wage & Benefit Costs | 38.9 | 38.2 | 43.8 | 45.0 | 40.0 | 33.4 | 31.2 |
Expected General Activity - Company | 56.9 | 44.0 | 45.8 | 46.6 | 50.2 | 50.1 | 43.2 |