Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- UK Regional: Regional Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Gerald D. Cohen May 15, 2019
Industrial production fell a greater-than-expected 0.5% (+0.9% year-on-year) during April following an upwardly-revised 0.2% gain in March (was -0.1%). The Action Economics Survey forecast an unchanged reading for April.
Manufacturing activity decreased 0.5% (-0.2% y/y) during April, while March was unchanged (unrevised). Utilities output dropped 3.5% (-4.7% y/y) as the number of heating days went from above-normal to below-normal. Meanwhile mining activity increased 1.6% (10.4% y/y) following three months of decline.
The decrease in manufacturing production was driven by a 0.9% drop in durables (+0.4% y/y), with motor vehicles and machinery both down 2.6% in April (-4.4% y/y and -0.7% y/y respectively). Aerospace output declined 0.8% (+4.4% y/y) while computers contracted 0.5% (+2.5% y/y). Nondurable output edged down 0.1% (-0.4% y/y) as petroleum & coal plummeted were unchanged (-1.1% y/y), chemicals ticked up 0.1% (1.9% y/y), and food decreased 0.2% (-1.2% y/y).
By market group, consumer goods output fell 1.2% in April (-2.5% y/y), business equipment dropped 2.1% (+0.1% y/y), and construction supplies declined 0.7% (+0.4% y/y). Materials gained 0.2% (3.2% y/y) as energy materials grew 0.7% (7.5% y/y).
In the special aggregate groupings, production of high technology products increased 0.6% (3.2% y/y). Semiconductor & electronic components gained 0.5% (1.6% y/y) and communications equipment edged up 0.1% (10.3% y/y). Output in computer & office equipment jumped 1.3% (-0.3% y/y), though it stands just slightly above 2008 levels. Factory sector production excluding the motor vehicle and high tech sectors declined 0.4% (+0.1% y/y) and is still 11% below its 2007 peak.
Capacity utilization dropped to 77.9% in April from 78.5%, well below the 78.7% expectations from Action Economics Survey. Factory sector use declined to 75.7% down 1.6 percentage points from December. Mining increased to 91.4%, though is still below the cycle high of 93.2% in December. Growth in capacity in the manufacturing sector continues to strengthen, up 1.0% y/y, though capacity is still slightly below its 2008 peak.
Industrial production and capacity data and US Population-Weighted Heating and Cooling Days are included in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail on production and capacity can be found in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | -0.5 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 2.3 | -2.0 |
Manufacturing | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 |
Consumer Goods | -1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -2.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Business Equipment | -2.1 | 0.7 | -1.1 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 3.6 | -5.3 |
Construction Supplies | -0.7 | 0.1 | -1.7 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
Materials | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.6 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 2.7 | -3.0 |
Utilities | -3.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | -4.7 | 4.4 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
Mining | 1.6 | -0.4 | -1.0 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | -9.9 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 77.9 | 78.5 | 78.5 | 78.8 | 78.7 | 76.5 | 75.0 |
Manufacturing | 75.7 | 76.2 | 76.2 | 76.6 | 76.6 | 75.1 | 74.2 |