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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 15, 2019
Total retail sales slipped 0.2% (+3.1% y/y) during April following a 1.7% March increase, revised from 1.6%. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales improved 0.1% (3.3% y/y) after rising 1.3%. A 0.7% gain had been expected.
Last month, a 1.1% decline (+2.2% y/y) in sales of motor vehicle & parts led the overall sales weakness, after a 3.2% March rise. This compared to a 6.1% decline in unit sales of motor vehicles during April.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales were unchanged during April (3.4% y/y) after a 1.1% increase.
Weakness in retail sales was pervasive. Sales of building materials & garden equipment stores were off 1.9% (+1.2% y/y) following a 0.8% increase. Electronics & appliance store sales declined 1.3% (-4.3% y/y) and reversed the prior month's rise. Clothing & accessory store sales eased 0.2% (+0.2% y/y) after a 2.1% jump. Sales via the internet also slipped 0.2% (+9.0% y/y) following three straight months of strong increase. Offsetting these declines was a 0.2% gain (2.7% y/y) in general merchandise store sales which added to a 0.7% rise. Sales by sporting goods, hobby, book & music retailers also improved 0.2% (-8.5% y/y) after a 0.3% decline.
Gasoline service station sales rose 1.8% (4.9% y/y) with higher prices, strong for the third straight month.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y) after a 1.5% strengthening. Health & personal care product store sales eased 0.2% (+3.6% y/y) following a 0.6% increase.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 0.2% (5.7% y/y) after a 1.0% rise.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.2 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
Excluding Autos | 0.1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 |
Retail Sales | -0.2 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.1 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.0 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
Gasoline Stations | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 12.9 | 9.4 | -5.8 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 5.2 |