Recent Updates
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 15, 2019
Total retail sales slipped 0.2% (+3.1% y/y) during April following a 1.7% March increase, revised from 1.6%. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales improved 0.1% (3.3% y/y) after rising 1.3%. A 0.7% gain had been expected.
Last month, a 1.1% decline (+2.2% y/y) in sales of motor vehicle & parts led the overall sales weakness, after a 3.2% March rise. This compared to a 6.1% decline in unit sales of motor vehicles during April.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales were unchanged during April (3.4% y/y) after a 1.1% increase.
Weakness in retail sales was pervasive. Sales of building materials & garden equipment stores were off 1.9% (+1.2% y/y) following a 0.8% increase. Electronics & appliance store sales declined 1.3% (-4.3% y/y) and reversed the prior month's rise. Clothing & accessory store sales eased 0.2% (+0.2% y/y) after a 2.1% jump. Sales via the internet also slipped 0.2% (+9.0% y/y) following three straight months of strong increase. Offsetting these declines was a 0.2% gain (2.7% y/y) in general merchandise store sales which added to a 0.7% rise. Sales by sporting goods, hobby, book & music retailers also improved 0.2% (-8.5% y/y) after a 0.3% decline.
Gasoline service station sales rose 1.8% (4.9% y/y) with higher prices, strong for the third straight month.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y) after a 1.5% strengthening. Health & personal care product store sales eased 0.2% (+3.6% y/y) following a 0.6% increase.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 0.2% (5.7% y/y) after a 1.0% rise.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.2 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
Excluding Autos | 0.1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 |
Retail Sales | -0.2 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.1 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.0 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
Gasoline Stations | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 12.9 | 9.4 | -5.8 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 5.2 |