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Economy in Brief
U.S. Productivity Weakness Revised Little; Unit Labor Costs Still Firm
Productivity growth in the nonfarm business sector last quarter was revised to -0.2% at an annual rate (+1.5%) y/y...
U.S. Gasoline and Nat Gas Prices Fall While Crude Oil Prices Were Mixed
In the week ended December 9, retail gasoline prices edged down to $2.56 per gallon (+5.8% y/y)...
ZEW Assessments and Expectations Improve But Gain Less Markedly
The ZEW global macroeconomic assessments have improved along a broad front in December following a surge of improvement in November...
NABE Projections for Moderate Growth and Inflation Are Little Revised
The National Association for Business Economics expectations of 1.8% growth in real GDP during 2020...
German Trade Data Tell a Tale of Two Germanys
Germany's October trade report is better than expected...
by Tom Moeller May 13, 2019
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $160.3 billion surplus during April compared to a $214.3 billion surplus one year earlier. A $165.0 billion surplus had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the first seven months of FY'19, the budget deficit deepened to $530.9 billion compared to a deficit of $385.4 billion during the first seven months of FY'18.
Net revenues rose 1.8% y/y so far this fiscal year compared to a 0.4% gain during all of FY'18. Individual income receipts rose 0.6% y/y so far in FY'19, compared to a 6.1% rise in FY'18. The decline in corporate tax rates reduced business tax receipts by 6.7% y/y after a one-third drop last year. Social insurance receipts rose 4.7% y/y following a 0.8% gain in FY'18, and excise taxes rose by 16.8% y/y after last year's 13.3% increase.
Government spending increased 7.6% y/y so far in FY'19 after a 3.2% rise last year. National defense spending strengthened 11.0% y/y, roughly double the y/y gain during all of last fiscal year. Spending on health programs increased 5.9% y/y after a 3.3% rise while Medicare outlays rose 12.5% y/y following a 1.4% drop. Growth in income security payments have increased 3.2% y/y so far in FY'19 after a 1.6% FY'18 decline. Social Security payments gained 5.2% y/y after rising 4.5%. Interest payments rose by 13.6% y/y with the larger budget deficit.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | April | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $160.3 | $-779.0 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 |
| Fiscal 'YTD | -- | $-530.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y Change) | 100 | 1.8% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 0.6 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | -- | -6.7 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 35 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 16.8 | 13.3 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| National Defense | 16 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
| Health | 13 | 5.9 | 3.3 | -1.9 | 6.2 | 17.8 |
| Medicare | 14 | 12.5 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 |
| Income Security | 12 | 3.2 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Social Security | 24 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 15.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 2 | 5.7 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 |
| Interest | 8 | 13.6 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
