Recent Updates
- Russia: Energy Statistics (Jun), GDP By Expenditure (Q1-Press)
- Ireland: Funding of the Exchequer Balance (Jun), Corporate Insolvencies (2019)
- UK: GfK Consumer Confidence COVID-19 Flash Report, BoE International Reserves, DMO Treasury Bill Issuance and Stock (Jun)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Factory Orders and Shipments Rebounded in May
Factory orders rebounded in May, rising 8.0% m/m...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widened Further in May
The foreign trade deficit in goods and services widened further in May...
State & Pandemic Assistance Initial Claims at 2.3 Million
State initial jobless claims decreased to a still extremely-elevated 1.427 million in the week ending June 27...
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Improve In June
Car & light truck sales continue to increase m/m, but remain off 23.7% y/y...
EMU Unemployment Ticks Higher
The EMU unemployment rate ticked higher to 7.4% in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 13, 2019
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $160.3 billion surplus during April compared to a $214.3 billion surplus one year earlier. A $165.0 billion surplus had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the first seven months of FY'19, the budget deficit deepened to $530.9 billion compared to a deficit of $385.4 billion during the first seven months of FY'18.
Net revenues rose 1.8% y/y so far this fiscal year compared to a 0.4% gain during all of FY'18. Individual income receipts rose 0.6% y/y so far in FY'19, compared to a 6.1% rise in FY'18. The decline in corporate tax rates reduced business tax receipts by 6.7% y/y after a one-third drop last year. Social insurance receipts rose 4.7% y/y following a 0.8% gain in FY'18, and excise taxes rose by 16.8% y/y after last year's 13.3% increase.
Government spending increased 7.6% y/y so far in FY'19 after a 3.2% rise last year. National defense spending strengthened 11.0% y/y, roughly double the y/y gain during all of last fiscal year. Spending on health programs increased 5.9% y/y after a 3.3% rise while Medicare outlays rose 12.5% y/y following a 1.4% drop. Growth in income security payments have increased 3.2% y/y so far in FY'19 after a 1.6% FY'18 decline. Social Security payments gained 5.2% y/y after rising 4.5%. Interest payments rose by 13.6% y/y with the larger budget deficit.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | April | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $160.3 | $-779.0 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 |
| Fiscal 'YTD | -- | $-530.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y Change) | 100 | 1.8% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 0.6 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | -- | -6.7 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 35 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 16.8 | 13.3 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| National Defense | 16 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
| Health | 13 | 5.9 | 3.3 | -1.9 | 6.2 | 17.8 |
| Medicare | 14 | 12.5 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 |
| Income Security | 12 | 3.2 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Social Security | 24 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 15.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 2 | 5.7 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 |
| Interest | 8 | 13.6 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
