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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Rise, but only Slightly
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications edged up 0.7% w/w...
Globally Money Supply Slows or Contracts in Real Terms
Money supply trends show that slowing is widespread across the major monetary center countries...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Further in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index weakened 4.4% (-23.4% y/y) in June...
U.S. FHFA House Prices Continued to Rise in April
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.6% during April...
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 9, 2019
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2% during April (2.2% y/y) following a 0.6% March surge. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Producer prices excluding food & energy edged 0.1% higher last month (2.4% y/y) after a 0.3% increase. A 0.2% rise had been anticipated. The PPI excluding food, beverages and trade services, another measure of underlying price inflation, strengthened 0.4% (2.2% y/y) during April following stability in March.
Higher energy prices strengthened the PPI for the third straight month, as they rose 1.8% (1.0% y/y). The gain reflected a 5.9% increase (1.8% y/y) in gasoline prices. Home heating oil prices improved 2.2% (3.2% y/y) and the cost of electric power rose 0.4% (1.4% y/y). Offsetting these gains was a 0.5% decline (+1.5% y/y) in the cost of natural gas.
Lower food prices offset some of the energy price strength with a 0.2% decline (+1.0% y/y). It was the third shortfall in four months. Egg prices declined 16.1% and they were down by roughly one-half y/y. Fresh vegetable prices also fell 11.6% m/m, but they rose by one-quarter y/y. Offsetting these declines was a 1.2% rise (6.2% y/y) in beef & veal prices while dairy product prices increased 1.0% (4.1% y/y).
Prices for core goods for final demand held steady (1.8% y/y), with core finished consumer goods prices edging up 0.2% (2.5% y/y). Nondurable consumer goods costs rose 0.2% (3.0% y/y) and durable consumer goods prices edged 0.1% higher (1.6% y/y). Appliance prices fell 0.5% (+3.7% y/y) but passenger car prices rose 0.6% (1.2% y/y). Private capital equipment costs also rose 0.2% (2.5% y/y). Offsetting these gains was a 0.3% decline (+0.4% y/y) in prices for core goods for export.
Services prices improved a slight 0.1% (2.4% y/y), though trade services prices declined 0.5% (+3.1 % y/y). The cost of trade of finished goods declined 0.7% (+2.8% y/y). Passenger transportation fees strengthened 3.5% (3.0% y/y) and transportation & warehousing costs held steady (3.9% y/y). Service prices less trade, transportation & warehousing gained 0.3% (2.1% y/y).
Construction costs strengthened 1.6% (5.4% y/y), private building costs by 1.5% (5.5% y/y) and government by 1.7% (5.3% y/y).
Prices for intermediate demand slipped 0.1% (+1.3% y/y) after a 0.8% rise.
The PPI data using both the current and old methodology are contained in Haver's USECON database. Further detail can be found in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
Producer Price Index (SA, %) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Demand | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
Excluding Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
Excluding Food, Energy & Trade Services | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
Goods | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | -1.4 |
Foods | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -2.8 |
Energy | 1.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | -8.4 |
Goods Excluding Food & Energy | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
Services | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Trade Services | -0.5 | 1.1 | -0.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Construction | 1.6 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
Intermediate Demand - Processed Goods | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | -3.1 |