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Economy in Brief
U.S. Productivity Weakness Revised Little; Unit Labor Costs Still Firm
Productivity growth in the nonfarm business sector last quarter was revised to -0.2% at an annual rate (+1.5%) y/y...
U.S. Gasoline and Nat Gas Prices Fall While Crude Oil Prices Were Mixed
In the week ended December 9, retail gasoline prices edged down to $2.56 per gallon (+5.8% y/y)...
ZEW Assessments and Expectations Improve But Gain Less Markedly
The ZEW global macroeconomic assessments have improved along a broad front in December following a surge of improvement in November...
NABE Projections for Moderate Growth and Inflation Are Little Revised
The National Association for Business Economics expectations of 1.8% growth in real GDP during 2020...
German Trade Data Tell a Tale of Two Germanys
Germany's October trade report is better than expected...
by Tom Moeller May 7, 2019
Consumer credit outstanding increased $10.27 billion (5.0% y/y) during March, less than the $15.47 billion February addition, revised from $15.18 billion. It was the smallest rise in nine months and lessened three-month growth to 4.4% (AR), down from 5.9% during October. A $16.5 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Nonrevolving credit usage increased $12.45 billion (5.6% y/y) during March and by 5.4% (AR) during the last three months. Growth peaked for the expansion at 8.4% during 2014. Borrowing from the federal government, which issues roughly 40% of nonrevolving credit, grew 7.4% y/y. Depository institutions (30% of credit) gained 4.4% y/y. Meanwhile, finance company balances improved 0.3% y/y and credit union loans jumped 12.3% y/y. Each of these latter two sectors provide about 15% of nonrevolving credit.
Revolving consumer credit balances were drawn down by $3.18 billion (+3.5% y/y) in March, the first decline in three months. Credit provided by depository institutions, which makes up 90% of revolving credit balances, grew 5.2% y/y. Borrowing from credit unions (6% of the total) increased 8.1% y/y. Credit extended by finance companies (2% of the total) fell 10.6% y/y.
During Q1'19, student loan debt increased 4.9% y/y, down significantly from 14.7% y/y growth in 2008. Motor vehicle financing grew a slightly higher 4.0% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of the Census and Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar y/y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $10.27 bil. | $15.47 bil. | $17.17 bil. | 5.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 6.8 |
Nonrevolving | 12.45 | 12.38 | 14.36 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 6.9 |
Revolving | -3.18 | 3.08 | 2.80 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 6.8 |