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Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs Step Back But Most Still Show Expansion
The S&P global composite PMIs took a turn for the worse in June...
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level in Two Years
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 53.0 in June...
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 7, 2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate rebounded to 4.7% during March after declining sharply to 4.5% in February. The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job openings level. Finding workers to fill openings remained difficult. The hiring rate held at 3.8% and has been moving sideways for about a year. Employers became a little less hesitant to let people go, as exemplified by the layoff & discharge rate, which returned to the record low of 1.1%. And with jobs plentiful, workers remained ready to find new work. The quits rate held steady at a near-record 2.3%.
The private-sector job openings rate rebounded slightly m/m to 5.0%, but remained below the 5.2% record reached in November. That rate was increased from a low of 2.0% averaged in 2009. In leisure & hospitality, the rate improved to 5.8%, still off from December's high of 6.2%. In professional & business services the rate held steady at a near-record 6.3%. In education & health services the rate rose slightly to 5.1%, up from 2.6% in 2010. In trade, transportation & utilities the rate rebounded slightly to 4.5% after falling in February to the lowest point since November 2017. The rate surged to a record 4.6% in construction, and in manufacturing, it held steady at 3.6%, up from 3.3% twelve months earlier. The government sector job openings rate was unchanged at 3.0%, and remained up sharply from the 2009 low of 1.2%.
The level of job openings increased 4.8% (8.6% y/y) to 7.488 million after a 6.3% decline. Private-sector openings rose 5.6% (9.0% y/y) while government sector job openings fell 2.4% (+4.4% y/y).
The private-sector hiring rate eased to 4.1% and was below May's eleven-year high of 4.4%. The rate in leisure & hospitality gained to 6.6%. In professional & business services, the hiring rate held steady at 5.5% and remained below the June 2017 high of 6.1%. The construction sector's hiring rate held at 4.8%, down from January's high of 5.8%. The hiring rate in trade, transportation & utilities eased to 4.0% and was down sharply from 4.4% in November. In education & health services, the rate held steady for a third month at 3.0%, the high end of the recent range. In manufacturing, the 2.8% hiring rate was reduced from July's high of 3.1%. The hiring rate in government fell sharply to 1.5% from 1.8% in January and matched the lowest level in four years.
Total hiring rose y/y by a greatly lessened 0.6% to 5.660 million. Hiring in the private sector rose 0.6% y/y while government sector hiring gained 0.3% y/y.
As improvement in the labor market eased, the overall job separations rate fell to 3.6% from the expansion high of 3.8% in October. The private sector separations rate eased to 4.0%, below the cycle high of 4.2% reached in July. The separations rate in government declined to the two-year low of 1.5%.
The total level of separations was little changed y/y. In the private sector, they also were constant y/y reflecting a 1.4% y/y decline in the construction sector. In educational and health services, separations fell 3.4% y/y, but in trade, transportation & utilities separations rose 2.9% y/y. Leisure & hospitality job separations increased 1.8% y/y and in manufacturing, they rose 4.3% y/y. In the financial sector, separations fell a sharp 8.0% y/y to the lowest level since mid-2016. Separations in the information sector also declined 1.4% y/y and in professional & business services they also fell 1.4% y/y. Separations in the government sector decreased 1.5% y/y.
The level of quits rose 3.3% y/y to 3.409 million in March. The quits rate has been stable for nearly a year at 2.3%, up sharply from 1.3% at the beginning of the expansion. The private-sector quits rate eased to 2.5%, but remained up from 1.4% in the fall of 2009. The government sector quits rate was stable at 0.8%.
The level of layoffs in the private sector declined 3.2% y/y, and the layoff rate remained near the record low at 1.3%, down from the 2009 high of 2.2%. The government sector layoff rate matched the record low of 0.4%.
The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar'18 | Mar'17 | Mar'16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
Total (000s) | 7,488 | 7,142 | 7,625 | 6,894 | 5,848 | 6,151 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
Total (000s) | 5,660 | 5,695 | 5,829 | 5,625 | 5,389 | 5,369 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Total (000s) | 1,700 | 1,784 | 1,695 | 1,771 | 1,745 | 1,863 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
Total (000s) | 3,409 | 3,447 | 3,483 | 3,300 | 3,148 | 2,908 |