Recent Updates
- China: Fixed Asset Investment, Online Retail Sales, IP (Apr)
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- New Zealand: Composite PMI, Performance of Service Index (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
EMU IP Drops Month-to-Month and Year-over-Year
Industrial output among EMU members fell by 1.8% month-to-month in March...
U.S. Producer Price Inflation Moderates in April
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased 0.5% during April...
U.S. Housing Affordability Plunges in March
Affordable homes are in short supply...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edge Upward
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 7 rose to 203,000 (-58.9% y/y)...
U.K. Shows Scatter-Shot IP Trends
Industrial output in the United Kingdom is mixed and convoluted...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 6, 2019
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) fell 1.3% during the last four weeks and was 11.6% below the prior year's level. Declines y/y were notable for metals and lumber.
Metals prices declined 3.7% over the last month led by the same 3.7% m/m fall in the cost of aluminum. Steel scrap prices were off 3.1% during the last four weeks. Zinc prices fell 3.0% last month and they remained 6.5% lower y/y. Copper scrap prices also weakened 1.6% m/m. Prices in the miscellaneous group fell 1.6% m/m led by a 2.8% weakening in framing lumber prices. Structural panel prices fell 3.5% m/m and were down roughly one-third versus last year. Working the other way, the cost of natural rubber rose 1.4% last month and 5.8% y/y. A 2.0% m/m gain in the crude oil & benzene category was led by a 1.9% rise in crude oil prices to $63.05 per barrel, up from the $45.02 low at the end of last year. Despite the increase, crude prices remained down versus the $75.05 early-October peak. Prices for the petro-chemical benzene increased 6.8% during the last month, but they remained one-quarter below the year-ago level. Prices in the textile group slipped 0.8% m/m and were down modestly y/y. Cotton prices also fell 0.8% m/m while burlap prices eased 0.9% m/m (-4.1% y/y).
Recent declines in industrial commodity prices accompanied a fall in factory sector output during each of the last three months. Improvement may be forthcoming as the consensus forecast from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) calls for a 2.8% rise in industrial output during all of 2019 and a 1.7% gain next year. During the last ten years, there has been a 52% correlation between the y/y change in industrial commodity prices and the y/y change in factory sector output.
Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases. The NABE forecast is in the SURVEYS database.
FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index (%) | 1-Mth | 3-Mth | 6-Mth | 12-Mth | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Items | -1.3 | 2.1 | -1.5 | -11.6 | -12.0 | 6.7 | 19.2 |
Textiles | -0.8 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -2.3 | -2.8 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
Cotton (cents per pound) | -0.8 | 2.0 | -3.9 | -11.2 | -9.2 | 9.8 | 10.2 |
Metals | -3.7 | 0.6 | -0.3 | -11.9 | -12.2 | 18.6 | 32.9 |
Aluminum ($ per metric ton) | -3.7 | -3.2 | -7.8 | -20.4 | -12.7 | 26.0 | 13.0 |
Copper Scrap (cents per pound) | -1.6 | 5.6 | 3.7 | -6.4 | -16.1 | 29.3 | 17.3 |
Steel Scrap ($ per ton) | -3.1 | 6.4 | -8.2 | -12.9 | 2.3 | 16.8 | 74.5 |
Crude Oil & Benzene | 2.0 | 9.2 | -6.3 | -7.9 | -20.0 | 8.1 | 20.4 |
Crude Oil (WTI, $ per Barrel) | 1.9 | 17.9 | -4.4 | -7.4 | -24.4 | 10.9 | 44.3 |
Miscellaneous | -1.6 | 1.6 | -1.2 | -19.9 | -14.8 | -0.5 | 21.7 |
Framing Lumber ($ per 1000 board ft.) | -2.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | -30.8 | -23.1 | 20.0 | 12.9 |
Natural Rubber (cents per pound) | 1.4 | 7.6 | 19.8 | 5.8 | -4.1 | -29.6 | 89.4 |