The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) fell 1.3% during the last four weeks and was 11.6% below the prior year's level. Declines y/y were notable for metals and lumber.

Metals prices declined 3.7% over the last month led by the same 3.7% m/m fall in the cost of aluminum. Steel scrap prices were off 3.1% during the last four weeks. Zinc prices fell 3.0% last month and they remained 6.5% lower y/y. Copper scrap prices also weakened 1.6% m/m. Prices in the miscellaneous group fell 1.6% m/m led by a 2.8% weakening in framing lumber prices. Structural panel prices fell 3.5% m/m and were down roughly one-third versus last year. Working the other way, the cost of natural rubber rose 1.4% last month and 5.8% y/y. A 2.0% m/m gain in the crude oil & benzene category was led by a 1.9% rise in crude oil prices to $63.05 per barrel, up from the $45.02 low at the end of last year. Despite the increase, crude prices remained down versus the $75.05 early-October peak. Prices for the petro-chemical benzene increased 6.8% during the last month, but they remained one-quarter below the year-ago level. Prices in the textile group slipped 0.8% m/m and were down modestly y/y. Cotton prices also fell 0.8% m/m while burlap prices eased 0.9% m/m (-4.1% y/y).

Recent declines in industrial commodity prices accompanied a fall in factory sector output during each of the last three months. Improvement may be forthcoming as the consensus forecast from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) calls for a 2.8% rise in industrial output during all of 2019 and a 1.7% gain next year. During the last ten years, there has been a 52% correlation between the y/y change in industrial commodity prices and the y/y change in factory sector output.

Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases. The NABE forecast is in the SURVEYS database.