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Economy in Brief
U.S. Leading Indicators Rebounded in March
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rebounded in March, rising 1.3% m/m (+7.9% y/y)...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Increases in March
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index increased to 1.71 during March...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Strengthens in April
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to a record 31 in April...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fall Again to a New Pandemic-Period Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased again in the week ending April 17, reaching 547,000...
U.K. CBI Optimism Speaks Volumes
The U.K. CBI survey saw its order component backtrack in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 2, 2019
Manufacturers' orders surged 1.9% (2.0% y/y) during March following a 0.3% February decline, revised from -0.5%. A 1.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for durable goods rose 2.6% (2.1% y/y), revised from the advance report of a 2.7% gain issued last week. Transportation equipment orders jumped 7.0% (1.2% y/y) paced by a one-third surge in civilian aircraft & parts orders which more than recaptured February's decline. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector improved 0.8% (2.1% y/y), the largest increase since May 2018. Electrical equipment & parts orders rose 0.5% (2.6% y/y) after two months of stronger gains, but machinery bookings improved just 0.1% (3.6% y/y) after a 0.9% decline.
Orders for nondurable goods, which equal shipments, increased 0.7% in March (3.5% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. Shipments outside of the transportation sector rose 0.7%, with y/y growth of 2.7%, down from 8.8% y/y in June 2018. A 6.3% increase (4.3% y/y) in petroleum shipments powered the rise as prices strengthened. Food product shipments eased 0.3% (-0.9% y/y) and apparel demand inched 0.1% higher (1.3% y/y). Shipments of textile products fell 0.7% (+4.1% y/y) and basic chemical shipments rose 0.4% (3.8% y/y). Shipments of durable goods improved 0.5% (5.1% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments eased 0.4% (+6.9% y/y) but electrical equipment shipments rose 0.4% (3.5% y/y). Transportation equipment shipments rose 1.1% (7.2% y/y) following two months of decline.
Order backlogs in the manufacturing sector rose 0.2% (2.9% y/y) and recovered February's drop. Transportation equipment backlogs rebounded 0.4% (2.5% y/y) after a 0.3% fall. Unfilled orders outside of transportation eased 0.1% (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. The backlog of orders for electrical equipment & appliances was little changed (0.7% y/y) while computer & electronic component backlogs rose 0.5% (4.1% y/y). Unfilled orders for primary metals strengthened 0.2% (9.2% y/y) for a second month. Unfilled orders for fabricated metals fell 0.6% (+5.5% y/y). Machinery order backlogs eased 0.2% (+1.4% y/y).
Factory inventories increased 0.4% (3.9% y/y) after rising 0.3% during February. Transportation sector inventories nudged 0.1% higher (4.8% y/y) and inventories outside of transportation rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories rose 0.5% (9.5% y/y) following four straight months of even stronger increase. Computer & electronic product inventories improved 0.4% (0.5% y/y) after three months of little change. Machinery inventories strengthened 1.0% (5.8% y/y). Primary metals inventories declined 0.6% (+6.9% y/y) while electrical equipment inventories rose 0.5% (9.5% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 1.9 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 2.0 | 7.2 | 5.7 | -2.9 |
Shipments | 0.7 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
Inventories | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |