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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 30, 2019
The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index increased 4.0% (2.9% y/y) to 129.2 during April and reversed most of the March decline. The m/m rise exceeded expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey which were for a decline to 126.0. During the past ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the year-on-year change in monthly real consumer spending.
The reading of the present situation rebounded 3.3% (6.9% y/y) to 168.3 after the March decline. The expectations reading rose 4.8% (-1.2% y/y) to 103.0 and made up most of the March slide.
The percentage of respondents who believed that business conditions were good rose modestly to 37.3% but remained below the high of 42.0% last November. The percentage of respondents who believed jobs were plentiful rebounded to a cycle-high of 46.8%. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a slightly lessened 13.3%, still higher than the cycle low of 11.7% reached in February.
On the expectations front, a higher 19.9% of respondents felt that business condition would improve. A fairly steady 17.2% thought that there would be more jobs, down from 22.7% in November. An improved 21.5% felt that income would increase. That was the most since December, but still below the high of 25.4% last August.
Expectations for the y/y increase in the CPI of 4.5% remained below the high of 5.0% who thought so nine months ago. The 54.3% who felt that interest rates would rise was down m/m and below the 73.2% October high.
The 1.1% of respondents who planned to buy a new home was down from this cycle's high of 1.7% registered in July 2017. The percentage who planned to buy a major appliance declined to 48.4%, the fewest in nine months.
By age group, confidence improved broadly. For those under age 35, the confidence reading rebounded 14.8% this month to a new high for the expansion. Confidence in the 35-54 year old age bracket rose, but remained range-bound below the cycle peak for six months. Confidence amongst individuals over age 55 eased slightly m/m and was 12.5% below the November peak.
The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence Index | 129.2 | 124.2 | 131.4 | 2.9 | 130.1 | 120.5 | 99.8 |
Present Situation | 168.3 | 163.0 | 172.8 | 6.9 | 164.8 | 144.8 | 120.3 |
Expectations | 103.0 | 98.3 | 103.8 | -1.2 | 107.0 | 104.3 | 86.1 |
Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
Under 35 Years | 149.4 | 130.1 | 145.3 | 13.4 | 133.7 | 130.2 | 122.4 |
Aged 35-54 Years | 131.2 | 124.9 | 133.5 | -4.3 | 132.2 | 123.5 | 106.2 |
Over 55 Years | 120.4 | 122.0 | 126.2 | -2.0 | 126.3 | 112.9 | 84.6 |