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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 23, 2019
New home sales increased 4.5% (3.0% y/y) during March to 692,000 (AR) following a rise to 662,000 in February, revised from 667,000. It was the highest level of sales since November 2017 and up from the low of 552,000 this past October. Sales of 648,000 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These sales transactions are recorded when sales contracts are signed or deposits are made.
The median price of a new home declined 4.0% last month (-9.7% y/y) to $302,700 after rising 3.9% to a little-revised $315,200 in February. It was the lowest price in just over two years. The average price of a new home fell 2.4% (+1.8% y/y to $376,000.
Sales rose in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest strengthened 17.6% (1.2% y/y) to 87,000, repeating the percentage gain in February. New home sales in the West improved 6.7% (-4.3% y/y) to 176,000, the highest level in twelve months. In the South, sales rose 3.6% (9.3% y/y) to 401,000, the highest level since July 2007. To the downside, new home sales in the Northeast declined by nearly one-quarter m/m (-20.0% y/y) to 28,000 and reversed February's rise.
With the increase in sales, the months' supply of homes on the market declined to 6.0 in March, the lowest level in nine months. That was down from a high of 7.4 months in December. The median number of months a new home was on the market after its completion eased to 3.6 months, still up from the low of 2.7 months in October.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 692 | 662 | 625 | 3.0 | 617 | 616 | 560 |
Northeast | 28 | 36 | 29 | -20.0 | 33 | 40 | 32 |
Midwest | 87 | 74 | 63 | 1.2 | 76 | 72 | 69 |
South | 401 | 387 | 372 | 9.3 | 349 | 341 | 317 |
West | 176 | 165 | 161 | -4.3 | 160 | 164 | 142 |
Median Price (NSA, $) | 302,700 | 315,200 | 303,500 | -9.7 | 323,125 | 321,633 | 306,500 |