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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 19, 2019
New building activity has failed to garner strength this year. Total housing starts during March eased 0.3% (-14.2% y/y) to 1.139 million (SAAR) from 1.142 million during February, revised from 1.162 million. It was the lowest level of starts since May 2017. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.241 million starts.
Starts of single-family homes slipped 0.4% (-11.0% y/y) to 785,000 units from 788,000 in February, which was revised from 805,000. It was the lowest level since September 2016. Multi-family home starts held steady at 354,000 units (-20.4% y/y), the highest level since November.
The decline in new home building was widespread last month. In the Midwest, starts declined 17.6% to 131,000, the lowest level since February 2015. Starts in the South declined 7.2% to 604,000, off 15.5% in two months. Starts in the Northeast fell 4.4% to 86,000 units, off by more than one-quarter y/y. To the upside, in the West starts improved 31.4% to 318,000, but remained down 19.5% y/y.
Building permits eased 1.7% last month (-7.8% y/y) to 1.269 million, the third consecutive monthly decline. Permits to build a single-family home fell 1.1% (-5.1% y/y) to 808,000, the lowest level since August 2017. Multi-family building permits fell 2.7% (-12.4% y/y) to 461,000, a five-month low.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 1,139 | 1,142 | 1,298 | -14.2 | 1,249 | 1,208 | 1,177 |
Single-Family | 785 | 788 | 973 | -11.0 | 873 | 852 | 785 |
Multi-Family | 354 | 354 | 325 | -20.4 | 377 | 356 | 393 |
Starts By Region | |||||||
Northeast | 86 | 90 | 146 | -28.3 | 111 | 111 | 116 |
Midwest | 131 | 159 | 142 | -28.0 | 171 | 180 | 185 |
South | 604 | 651 | 715 | -4.1 | 631 | 603 | 585 |
West | 318 | 242 | 295 | -19.5 | 336 | 314 | 292 |
Building Permits | 1,269 | 1,291 | 1,317 | -7.8 | 1,313 | 1,286 | 1,206 |