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Economy in Brief
OECD Metrics Show a Broad Slowing Is -and Has Been- in Progress
The OECD amplitude-adjusted leading economic indicators show a slowing-to-mixed pattern...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline in December
Existing home sales declined 4.6% (-7.1% y/y) to 6.180 million units (SAAR) in December...
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The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Business Conditions Index rebounded in January, rising more than expected to 23.2...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 286,000 (-67.7% y/y) during the week ended January 15...
French INSEE Survey Scores Solid Marks with Mixed Momentum
France's INSEE industry climate reading spurted to 112.4 in January...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 18, 2019
Total retail sales increased 1.6% during March following a 0.2% February dip. It was the largest monthly increase since September 2017. The 3.6% y/y sales pace, however, remained down from growth during 2018 and 2017. A 0.9% March rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 3.1% increase (3.8% y/y) in sales of motor vehicle & parts was part of last months' sales strength after easing 0.1% during February. This compared to unit sales of motor vehicles which increased 5.3% during March. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose 1.2% (3.6% y/y) after slipping 0.2%. A 0.7% rise had been expected.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales surged 1.0% (3.7% y/y) during March after a 0.2% decline. These sales also increased 1.5% during January.
Strength in sales was broad-based last month. Clothing store sales rebounded 2.0% (1.5% y/y) following three straight months of sharp decline. Home furnishings store sales increased 1.7% (1.1% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Sales via the internet strengthened 1.2% (11.6% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 0.5% (-2.7% y/y) following 1.4% drop. General merchandise store sales gained 0.7% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.3% fall. Sales of building material stores improved 0.3% (3.3% y/y) after a 4.4% shortfall. Weakening by 0.3% (-9.7% y/y) were sales at sporting goods, hobby shops, book & music stores after a 0.3% gain.
Higher prices lifted sales at gasoline service stations by 3.5% (3.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
Sales of nondiscretionary items improved last month. Food & beverage store sales rebounded 1.0% (1.8% y/y) after a 1.9% decline. Health & personal care product store sales rose 0.2% (4.4% y/y) following a 0.6% increase.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.6 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
| Excluding Autos | 1.2 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 |
| Retail Sales | 1.7 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 3.1 | -0.1 | -1.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| Retail Less Autos | 1.2 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| Gasoline Stations | 3.5 | 3.5 | -1.7 | 3.1 | 12.9 | 9.4 | -5.8 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 5.2 |
