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Economy in Brief
U.S. Productivity Weakness Revised Little; Unit Labor Costs Still Firm
Productivity growth in the nonfarm business sector last quarter was revised to -0.2% at an annual rate (+1.5%) y/y...
U.S. Gasoline and Nat Gas Prices Fall While Crude Oil Prices Were Mixed
In the week ended December 9, retail gasoline prices edged down to $2.56 per gallon (+5.8% y/y)...
ZEW Assessments and Expectations Improve But Gain Less Markedly
The ZEW global macroeconomic assessments have improved along a broad front in December following a surge of improvement in November...
NABE Projections for Moderate Growth and Inflation Are Little Revised
The National Association for Business Economics expectations of 1.8% growth in real GDP during 2020...
German Trade Data Tell a Tale of Two Germanys
Germany's October trade report is better than expected...
by Tom Moeller April 18, 2019
Total retail sales increased 1.6% during March following a 0.2% February dip. It was the largest monthly increase since September 2017. The 3.6% y/y sales pace, however, remained down from growth during 2018 and 2017. A 0.9% March rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 3.1% increase (3.8% y/y) in sales of motor vehicle & parts was part of last months' sales strength after easing 0.1% during February. This compared to unit sales of motor vehicles which increased 5.3% during March. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose 1.2% (3.6% y/y) after slipping 0.2%. A 0.7% rise had been expected.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales surged 1.0% (3.7% y/y) during March after a 0.2% decline. These sales also increased 1.5% during January.
Strength in sales was broad-based last month. Clothing store sales rebounded 2.0% (1.5% y/y) following three straight months of sharp decline. Home furnishings store sales increased 1.7% (1.1% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Sales via the internet strengthened 1.2% (11.6% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 0.5% (-2.7% y/y) following 1.4% drop. General merchandise store sales gained 0.7% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.3% fall. Sales of building material stores improved 0.3% (3.3% y/y) after a 4.4% shortfall. Weakening by 0.3% (-9.7% y/y) were sales at sporting goods, hobby shops, book & music stores after a 0.3% gain.
Higher prices lifted sales at gasoline service stations by 3.5% (3.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
Sales of nondiscretionary items improved last month. Food & beverage store sales rebounded 1.0% (1.8% y/y) after a 1.9% decline. Health & personal care product store sales rose 0.2% (4.4% y/y) following a 0.6% increase.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.6 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
| Excluding Autos | 1.2 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 |
| Retail Sales | 1.7 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 3.1 | -0.1 | -1.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| Retail Less Autos | 1.2 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| Gasoline Stations | 3.5 | 3.5 | -1.7 | 3.1 | 12.9 | 9.4 | -5.8 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 5.2 |
