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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Product Prices Continue to Slide
Retail gasoline prices declined to $2.00 per gallon (-25.5% y/y) in the week ended March 30...
Texas Factory Activity Collapses
The Dallas Fed reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index weakened to -70.0 this month...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Improve Ahead of Coronavirus
The NAR reported that pending home sales increased 2.4% in February (9.4% y/y)...
EU Indexes Crash and Burn Across the Board
The one constant in the EMU is the weakness that has spread across the euro area...
U.S. Personal Income Stays Strong While Spending Moderates, Pre-Coronavirus
Personal income increased 0.6% (4.0% y/y) in February...
by Tom Moeller April 18, 2019
Total retail sales increased 1.6% during March following a 0.2% February dip. It was the largest monthly increase since September 2017. The 3.6% y/y sales pace, however, remained down from growth during 2018 and 2017. A 0.9% March rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 3.1% increase (3.8% y/y) in sales of motor vehicle & parts was part of last months' sales strength after easing 0.1% during February. This compared to unit sales of motor vehicles which increased 5.3% during March. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose 1.2% (3.6% y/y) after slipping 0.2%. A 0.7% rise had been expected.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales surged 1.0% (3.7% y/y) during March after a 0.2% decline. These sales also increased 1.5% during January.
Strength in sales was broad-based last month. Clothing store sales rebounded 2.0% (1.5% y/y) following three straight months of sharp decline. Home furnishings store sales increased 1.7% (1.1% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Sales via the internet strengthened 1.2% (11.6% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 0.5% (-2.7% y/y) following 1.4% drop. General merchandise store sales gained 0.7% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.3% fall. Sales of building material stores improved 0.3% (3.3% y/y) after a 4.4% shortfall. Weakening by 0.3% (-9.7% y/y) were sales at sporting goods, hobby shops, book & music stores after a 0.3% gain.
Higher prices lifted sales at gasoline service stations by 3.5% (3.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
Sales of nondiscretionary items improved last month. Food & beverage store sales rebounded 1.0% (1.8% y/y) after a 1.9% decline. Health & personal care product store sales rose 0.2% (4.4% y/y) following a 0.6% increase.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.6 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
| Excluding Autos | 1.2 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 |
| Retail Sales | 1.7 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 3.1 | -0.1 | -1.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| Retail Less Autos | 1.2 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| Gasoline Stations | 3.5 | 3.5 | -1.7 | 3.1 | 12.9 | 9.4 | -5.8 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 5.2 |
