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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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by Gerald D. Cohen April 17, 2019
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index decreased 3.5% (+14.9% year-on-year) during the week ending April 12. Applications to purchase a home increased 0.9% (7.0% y/y), while refinance activity fell 8.2% (+26.4% y/y).
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 3.95%. Mortgage rates had fallen to a 14-month low of 3.88% in March after hitting a seven-and-a-half year high of 4.71% in November 2018. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan increased to 4.56%, while 30-year Jumbo rates rose to 4.40%. Adjustable 5-year mortgage rates stepped up to 3.95%.
The average mortgage loan size continued declined to $333,100 (+13.0% y/y), down meaningfully from late March's record of $381,700. For purchases, the average loan size edged down to $335,300 (7.4% y/y) from last week's record level of 336,800. The average refinance loan size fell to $329,900 (24.3% y/y), after spiking to $438,900 in late March. Data for all these series go back to 1990.
Applications for fixed- and adjustable-rate loans were up 14.9% y/y and 15.2% respectively.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 4/12/2019 | 4/05/2019 | 3/29/2019 | Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | -3.5 | -5.6 | 18.6 | 14.9 | -10.4 | -17.8 | 15.6 |
Purchase | 0.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 |
Refinancing | -8.2 | -11.4 | 38.5 | 26.4 | -24.3 | -34.0 | 17.3 |
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.95 | 3.94 | 3.88 | 4.25 (Apr '18) | 4.35 | 3.59 | 3.22 |