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Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller April 11, 2019
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index increased 0.6% during March (2.2% y/y) following a 0.1% February gain. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Producer prices excluding food & energy rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. A 0.2% rise had been anticipated. The PPI excluding food, beverages and trade services, another measure of underlying price inflation, was unchanged (2.0% y/y) following a 0.1% rise.
Higher energy prices strengthened the PPI for the second straight month, rising 5.6% (-0.4% y/y). It reflected a 16.0% surge in the cost of gasoline, which remained down 4.3% y/y. Home heating oil prices increased 4.8% (2.5% y/y). Natural gas prices increased 1.4% (0.7% y/y) and the cost of electric power rose 0.6% (0.8% y/y).
A 0.3% rebound in food prices (0.1% y/y) added to the rise in energy prices. It followed two straight months of decline. Vegetable prices rose 17.6% (18.1% y/y). Dairy product prices increased 1.0% (3.5% y/y), a gain that was accompanied by stable (0.7% y/y) beef & veal prices. Egg prices fell 8.8% and were down by roughly one-half y/y. Fresh fruit prices eased 0.8% both m/m and y/y.
Core goods prices rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y) reflecting a 0.2% gain (2.7% y/y) in finished consumer goods prices. Nondurable consumer goods costs rose 0.5% (3.4% y/y) but durable consumer goods prices eased 0.2% (+1.7% y/y). Appliance prices slipped 0.2% (+5.2% y/y) and light truck prices fell 0.7% (+0.2% y/y). Private capital equipment prices rose 0.1% (2.5% y/y).
Services prices increased 0.3% (2.5% y/y) as trade services prices surged 1.1% (3.9% y/y). The cost of trade of finished goods gained 1.2% (+3.6% y/y). Passenger transportation fees declined 1.5% (+0.4% y/y) and transportation & warehousing costs fell 0.5% (+4.3% y/y). Service prices less trade, transportation & warehousing held steady (1.8% y/y).
Construction costs strengthened 0.2% (4.9% y/y), both private & government.
Prices for intermediate demand strengthened 0.8% (1.3% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. These gains followed three straight months of decline.
The PPI data using both the current and old methodology are contained in Haver's USECON database. Further detail can be found in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
Producer Price Index (SA, %) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Demand | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
Excluding Food & Energy | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
Excluding Food, Energy & Trade Services | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
Goods | 1.0 | 0.4 | -0.8 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | -1.4 |
Foods | 0.3 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -2.8 |
Energy | 5.6 | 1.8 | -3.8 | -0.4 | 10.2 | 10.4 | -8.4 |
Goods Excluding Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
Services | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Trade Services | 1.1 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Construction | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
Intermediate Demand - Processed Goods | 0.8 | 0.4 | -1.4 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | -3.1 |