Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 8, 2019
Manufacturers' orders declined 0.5% (+1.5% y/y) during February following little change during January, revised from 0.1%. A 0.1% uptick in orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for durable goods weakened 1.6 % (8.4% y/y), unrevised from the advance report issued last week. A 4.4% decline (-0.6% y/y) in transportation equipment orders paced the decline as civilian aircraft & parts orders fell by roughly one-third. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector improved 0.3% (1.9 % y/y) following three straight months of decline. Electrical equipment & parts orders gained 1.0% (4.2% y/y) but machinery bookings fell 0.6% (+0.5% y/y).
Orders for nondurable goods, which equal shipments, increased 0.6% (1.1% y/y) following three straight months of decline. Shipments outside of the transportation sector rose 0.5% with y/y growth of 2.2%, down from 8.8% y/y as of last June. That reduced rate of increase came despite a 3.2% jump in petroleum shipments as prices strengthened. Food product shipments also improved 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) but apparel demand weakened 1.4% (+1.5% y/y), about the same as in January. Textile product demand fell 0.6% (+5.6% y/y) and the call for basic chemicals eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y). Shipments of durable goods improved 0.2% (5.5% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments gained 1.0% (6.5% y/y) and electrical equipment shipments rose 0.4% (3.8% y/y). These gains were offset by a 0.3% decline (+8.5% y/y) in transportation shipments.
Order backlogs in the manufacturing sector fell 0.3% (+3.5% y/y), down for the fourth month in the last five. Transportation equipment backlogs declined 0.4% (+3.0% y/y). Unfilled orders outside of transportation were little changed (+4.5% y/y). The backlog of orders for electrical equipment & appliances declined 0.2% (+1.1% y/y) while computer & electronic component backlogs eased 0.1% (+3.7% y/y). Unfilled orders for primary metals strengthened 0.3% (11.5% y/y) while unfilled orders for fabricated metals also rose 0.%, and by a steady 7.8% y/y.
Factory inventories increased 0.3% (3.6% y/y) after rising 0.5% during January. Transportation sector inventories strengthened 1.0% (4.1% y/y) and inventories outside of transportation ticked 0.1% higher (3.5% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories jumped 0.8% (9.3% y/y) following three straight months of similar strength. Computer & electronic product inventories improved 0.1% but the 0.3% y/y rise compares to 5.1% y/y growth as of December 2017. Computer & electronic product inventories improved 0.1% (0.2% y/y). Primary metals inventories declined 0.4%, but rose a steady 8.4% y/y, while machinery inventories slipped 0.1% (+5.2% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | -0.5 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | -2.9 |
Shipments | 0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
Inventories | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |