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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 4, 2019
The labor market remains strong. Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 202,000 (-9.2% y/y) during the week ended March 30 from 212,000 in the prior week, revised from 211,000. It was the lowest level of claims since the first week of December 1969. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 213,500, the lowest point since October. During the last 20 years, there has been a 70% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 1.717 million (-5.2% y/y) in the week ending March 23, from a little-revised 1.755 million. It was the lowest level since early-January. The four-week moving average of claimants eased to 1.743 million, a five-week low.
The insured unemployment rate held steady at the record low 1.2%.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending March 16, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.41%), North Carolina (0.47%), Tennessee (0.55%), Georgia (0.56%) and Virginia (0.59%). The highest rates were in Montana (2.40%), Rhode Island (2.45%), Connecticut (2.49%), New Jersey (2.62%), and Alaska (3.03%). Among other large states, the rate was 0.99% in Texas, 1.65% in New York, 2.25% in Pennsylvania and 2.27% in California. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 03/30/19 | 03/23/19 | 03/16/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 202 | 212 | 216 | -9.2 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,717 | 1,755 | -5.2 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.3 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |