Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 4, 2019
The labor market remains strong. Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 202,000 (-9.2% y/y) during the week ended March 30 from 212,000 in the prior week, revised from 211,000. It was the lowest level of claims since the first week of December 1969. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 213,500, the lowest point since October. During the last 20 years, there has been a 70% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 1.717 million (-5.2% y/y) in the week ending March 23, from a little-revised 1.755 million. It was the lowest level since early-January. The four-week moving average of claimants eased to 1.743 million, a five-week low.
The insured unemployment rate held steady at the record low 1.2%.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending March 16, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.41%), North Carolina (0.47%), Tennessee (0.55%), Georgia (0.56%) and Virginia (0.59%). The highest rates were in Montana (2.40%), Rhode Island (2.45%), Connecticut (2.49%), New Jersey (2.62%), and Alaska (3.03%). Among other large states, the rate was 0.99% in Texas, 1.65% in New York, 2.25% in Pennsylvania and 2.27% in California. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 03/30/19 | 03/23/19 | 03/16/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 202 | 212 | 216 | -9.2 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,717 | 1,755 | -5.2 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.3 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |