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Economy in Brief
Italy Is Whacked by Corona-world
No country is battling harder than Italy whose economy is now starting to show some severe strains...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Soar to Record 3.3 Million
Initial jobless claims jumped to a record 3.283 million in the week ending March 21...
Kansas City Fed Factory Index Collapses
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U.S. GDP Growth Remains at 2.1% in Q4
U.S. GDP was unrevised in the fourth quarter of 2019 at 2.1% (SAAR) the same as in the advance estimate and the February report...
Advance U.S. Trade Deficit in Goods Shrinks in February
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed to $59.88 billion in February...
by Tom Moeller April 2, 2019
New orders for durable goods fell 1.6% (+1.8% y/y) during February following a 0.1% January uptick, revised from 0.4%. A 1.0% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The decline was led by a 4.8% (-0.8% y/y) falloff in transportation sector orders, which were dragged lower by a roughly one-third drop in nondefense aircraft bookings. Orders for defense aircraft rose 2.5% (18.9% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts orders eased 0.1% (+8.4% y/y) following a 0.5% fall.
Nondefense capital goods orders declined 6.3% (-3.8% y/y) after a 1.4% rise. Orders excluding aircraft eased 0.1% (+2.6% y/y) following a 0.9% January gain.
New orders outside of the transportation sector improved 0.1% (3.3% y/y) and reversed the January uptick. Orders for electrical equipment rose 1.0% (4.5% y/y) following a 1.3% gain. Primary metals orders rose 0.7% (5.3% y/y) after a 1.8% decline, and fabricated metal orders nudged 0.3% higher (6.2% y/y) following a 0.4% drop. Working lower by 0.3% (+0.7% y/y) were machinery orders after a 2.0% jump. Orders for computers & electronic product also eased 0.3% (+6.1% y/y), led down by a 1.6% drop (+7.4% y/y) in communications equipment bookings. Orders for computers & related products eased 0.5% (+3.5% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Durable product shipments improved 0.2% (5.5% y/y) after a 0.4% decline. Excluding a 0.3% (+8.8% y/y) easing in the transportation sector, durable shipments improved 0.5% (3.9% y/y). Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft were fairly steady (3.5% y/y) after a 1.0% jump.
Unfilled durable goods orders declined 0.3% (+3.5% y/y) after rough stability during the prior two months. Backlogs outside of the transportation were unchanged (4.5% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.3% (4.8% y/y) following a 0.5% rise in January. Inventories outside of the transportation sector were fairly steady (5.1% y/y) after moderate m/m increases during the prior two years.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | -1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 7.8 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | -4.8 | 0.4 | 3.2 | -0.8 | 9.6 | 3.4 | -0.7 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -6.3 | 1.4 | 4.5 | -3.8 | 5.6 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.1 | 0.9 | -0.8 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.0 | -2.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -3.0 |
