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by Tom Moeller April 2, 2019
New orders for durable goods fell 1.6% (+1.8% y/y) during February following a 0.1% January uptick, revised from 0.4%. A 1.0% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The decline was led by a 4.8% (-0.8% y/y) falloff in transportation sector orders, which were dragged lower by a roughly one-third drop in nondefense aircraft bookings. Orders for defense aircraft rose 2.5% (18.9% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts orders eased 0.1% (+8.4% y/y) following a 0.5% fall.
Nondefense capital goods orders declined 6.3% (-3.8% y/y) after a 1.4% rise. Orders excluding aircraft eased 0.1% (+2.6% y/y) following a 0.9% January gain.
New orders outside of the transportation sector improved 0.1% (3.3% y/y) and reversed the January uptick. Orders for electrical equipment rose 1.0% (4.5% y/y) following a 1.3% gain. Primary metals orders rose 0.7% (5.3% y/y) after a 1.8% decline, and fabricated metal orders nudged 0.3% higher (6.2% y/y) following a 0.4% drop. Working lower by 0.3% (+0.7% y/y) were machinery orders after a 2.0% jump. Orders for computers & electronic product also eased 0.3% (+6.1% y/y), led down by a 1.6% drop (+7.4% y/y) in communications equipment bookings. Orders for computers & related products eased 0.5% (+3.5% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Durable product shipments improved 0.2% (5.5% y/y) after a 0.4% decline. Excluding a 0.3% (+8.8% y/y) easing in the transportation sector, durable shipments improved 0.5% (3.9% y/y). Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft were fairly steady (3.5% y/y) after a 1.0% jump.
Unfilled durable goods orders declined 0.3% (+3.5% y/y) after rough stability during the prior two months. Backlogs outside of the transportation were unchanged (4.5% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.3% (4.8% y/y) following a 0.5% rise in January. Inventories outside of the transportation sector were fairly steady (5.1% y/y) after moderate m/m increases during the prior two years.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | -1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 7.8 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | -4.8 | 0.4 | 3.2 | -0.8 | 9.6 | 3.4 | -0.7 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -6.3 | 1.4 | 4.5 | -3.8 | 5.6 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.1 | 0.9 | -0.8 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.0 | -2.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -3.0 |
