Recent Updates
- US: GDP & Corporite Profits (Q2, 3rd Rel), GDP by Industry w/rev, ADP Employment Report (Sep)
- Japan: Changes in Current Account Balances (Sep)
- Poland: BOP, IIP, External Debt (Q2)
- US: Chicago PMI (Sep)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds Meaningfully in September
The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence survey showed improvement this month...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Continues to Deepen in August
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to $82.94 billion last month...
U.S. Energy Prices Were Mixed
Regular gasoline prices were unchanged at $2.17 per gallon (-17.9% y/y) in the week ended September 28...
EU Indexes Continue to Claw Their Way Back with Speed But from the Depths
This month the EU indexes for the EMU area rose to 91.1 from 87.5...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Picks Up As COVID-19 Cases Decline
The Dallas Fed reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index increased to 13.6% during September...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 2, 2019
New orders for durable goods fell 1.6% (+1.8% y/y) during February following a 0.1% January uptick, revised from 0.4%. A 1.0% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The decline was led by a 4.8% (-0.8% y/y) falloff in transportation sector orders, which were dragged lower by a roughly one-third drop in nondefense aircraft bookings. Orders for defense aircraft rose 2.5% (18.9% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts orders eased 0.1% (+8.4% y/y) following a 0.5% fall.
Nondefense capital goods orders declined 6.3% (-3.8% y/y) after a 1.4% rise. Orders excluding aircraft eased 0.1% (+2.6% y/y) following a 0.9% January gain.
New orders outside of the transportation sector improved 0.1% (3.3% y/y) and reversed the January uptick. Orders for electrical equipment rose 1.0% (4.5% y/y) following a 1.3% gain. Primary metals orders rose 0.7% (5.3% y/y) after a 1.8% decline, and fabricated metal orders nudged 0.3% higher (6.2% y/y) following a 0.4% drop. Working lower by 0.3% (+0.7% y/y) were machinery orders after a 2.0% jump. Orders for computers & electronic product also eased 0.3% (+6.1% y/y), led down by a 1.6% drop (+7.4% y/y) in communications equipment bookings. Orders for computers & related products eased 0.5% (+3.5% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Durable product shipments improved 0.2% (5.5% y/y) after a 0.4% decline. Excluding a 0.3% (+8.8% y/y) easing in the transportation sector, durable shipments improved 0.5% (3.9% y/y). Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft were fairly steady (3.5% y/y) after a 1.0% jump.
Unfilled durable goods orders declined 0.3% (+3.5% y/y) after rough stability during the prior two months. Backlogs outside of the transportation were unchanged (4.5% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.3% (4.8% y/y) following a 0.5% rise in January. Inventories outside of the transportation sector were fairly steady (5.1% y/y) after moderate m/m increases during the prior two years.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | -1.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 7.8 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | -4.8 | 0.4 | 3.2 | -0.8 | 9.6 | 3.4 | -0.7 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -6.3 | 1.4 | 4.5 | -3.8 | 5.6 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.1 | 0.9 | -0.8 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.0 | -2.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -3.0 |
