Recent Updates
- US: Wholesale Trade (Feb), Producer Prices (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Industry Detail (Mar)
- Canada: Investment in Building Construction (Feb), Labor Force Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 1, 2019
The ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to 55.3 in March from 54.2 in February, but remained close to its weakest level since late-2016. The index remained below its expansion peak 60.8 last August. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated an improvement to 54.6. Since 2008, there has been a 73% correlation between the index level and the quarter-to-quarter growth in real GDP.
Movement amongst the component series was mixed last month. The new orders index increased to 57.4 and made up most of its February decline. The production index improved to 55.8, but remained well below the January 2018 high. Working lower was the inventories index which fell to 51.8, and was well below the expansion high reached last March. The supplier deliveries continued its recently sharp decline, and fell to 54.2. That suggested the quickest product delivery speeds since mid-2017.
The employment measure recovered to 57.5 from the two-year low of 52.3. A sharply increased 25% of respondents reported more hiring while 12% reported fewer jobs.
The separate new export index eased to 51.7, its lowest level since October 2017. The imports index fell to a roughly two-year low. The order backlog measure also declined modestly and remained well below its May 2018 high.
The prices paid index increased to 54.3 (NSA) in March, but remained well below the high of 79.5 last May. A greatly lessened 19% of respondents reported paying higher prices, the smallest percentage in three years, while 11% paid less.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database; further detail is found in the SURVEYS database. Commodity prices can be found in USECON as well as the CMDTY database. The expectations number is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
ISM Mfg (SA) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar'18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Headline Index | 55.3 | 54.2 | 56.6 | 59.3 | 58.8 | 57.4 | 51.3 |
New Orders | 57.4 | 55.5 | 58.2 | 62.4 | 61.5 | 62.2 | 54.5 |
Production | 55.8 | 54.8 | 60.5 | 61.2 | 60.7 | 60.9 | 53.8 |
Employment | 57.5 | 52.3 | 55.5 | 57.0 | 56.9 | 56.8 | 49.1 |
Supplier Deliveries | 54.2 | 54.9 | 56.2 | 60.7 | 62.0 | 56.8 | 51.8 |
Inventories | 51.8 | 53.4 | 52.8 | 55.5 | 52.9 | 50.4 | 47.5 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 54.3 | 49.4 | 49.6 | 78.1 | 71.7 | 65.0 | 53.1 |