Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 1, 2019
Total retail sales fell 0.2% during February (+2.2% y/y) following a 0.7% January increase, revised from 0.2%. A 0.2% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts declined 0.4% (+2.2% y/y) after a 1.4% increase, revised from 0.9%. A 0.3% rise had been expected.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales fell 0.2% in February (+2.9% y/y) following a 1.7% January rise, revised from 1.1%.
A 4.4% decline (+1.4% y/y) in sales of building materials and garden equipment held back overall retail sales in February as it reversed the prior month's increase. Electronic & appliance store sales also were weak and fell 1.3% (-3.1% y/y), down for five months in the last six. Furniture & home furnishings store sales were off 0.9% (-2.7% y/y) and have fallen 4.2% since their peak last April. Apparel store sales fell 0.4% (+0.8% y/y), down for the third straight month. General merchandise store sales fell 0.3% (1.2% y/y), led by a 0.5% decline (-4.0% y/y) in department store sales, the third straight monthly decline.
Offsetting these declines was a 0.9% rise (10.0% y/y) in nonstore retail sales. That followed a 4.5% recovery from a like-sized decline in December. Motor vehicle sales in dollar terms improved 0.7% (2.4% y/y), though unit motor vehicle purchases eased 0.8%. Also rising by 0.5% (-8.8% y/y) were sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales, but these sales have been declining since mid-2016.
In the nondiscretionary retail spending categories, food & beverage store sales declined 1.2% (+1.9% y/y) following a 1.4% rise. Health & personal care store sales increased 0.6% (5.9% y/y) after a 2.4% gain.
Food service & drinking establishment sales inched 0.1% higher (3.6% y/y), but have fallen slightly over the last six months.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.2 | 0.7 | -1.6 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
Excluding Autos | -0.4 | 1.4 | -2.1 | 2.2 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 |
Retail Sales | -0.2 | 0.8 | -1.8 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
Retail Less Autos | -0.5 | 1.6 | -2.5 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.7 | -1.9 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
Gasoline Stations | 1.0 | -1.2 | -5.9 | -3.2 | 13.0 | 8.8 | -5.7 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 5.6 |