Recent Updates
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
- US: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey by State (Mar)
- US: New Residential Construction (Apr)
- Canada: CPI (Apr)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Sandy Batten March 29, 2019
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell back to 58.7 in March after having surged to 64.7 in February. The February reading had been the highest since December 2017. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a decline to 61.0. The Chicago Purchasing Managers figures are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate growth.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer using methodology similar to the construction of the ISM Composite Index. This index fell to 57.7 in March from 59.8, suggesting continued healthy growth but at a slower pace than in February. Over the past 15 years, the ISM-adjusted Chicago index has an 83% correlation with the national ISM Manufacturing Index, which is scheduled for release on Monday.
While the index remains elevated and well above the critical level, its Q1 average is down from Q4 and from 2018 Q1, indicating that the pace of growth of activity has slowed over both the past quarter and the past year.
Across the component indexes, production fell to 64.2 from 67.3. New orders slumped to 59.8 fro, 68.4. Order backlogs declined the most, falling to a below-50 44.7 from 63.6. This is the lowest reading on for the orders backlog index since December 2016 and its first reading below 50 since January 2017. Inventories edged down to 47.4 from 47.8.
The employment index was the only component to rise in March, increasing to 56.2 from 55.5. The proportion of survey respondents (not seasonally adjusted) that indicated higher employment rose further in March to 28% while the percentage reducing employment was unchanged at 19%. The prices paid index continued its recent downtrend (which had been interrupted by the rise in February), declining to 64.5 in March from 71.2, the biggest monthly decline in 17 months to its lowest level since August 2017.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar '18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Barometer | 58.7 | 64.7 | 56.7 | 59.6 | 62.4 | 60.7 | 53.0 |
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 57.7 | 59.8 | 55.7 | 59.8 | 60.7 | 59.0 | 51.9 |
Production | 64.2 | 67.3 | 58.8 | 57.8 | 64.5 | 64.2 | 54.5 |
New Orders | 59.8 | 68.4 | 53.2 | 61.5 | 63.8 | 63.6 | 55.6 |
Order Backlogs | 44.7 | 63.6 | 58.0 | 52.5 | 58.0 | 55.2 | 47.1 |
Inventories | 47.4 | 47.8 | 52.6 | 57.6 | 55.3 | 54.9 | 47.2 |
Employment | 56.2 | 55.5 | 53.2 | 58.6 | 55.2 | 52.9 | 49.4 |
Supplier Deliveries | 60.9 | 60.2 | 60.5 | 63.7 | 64.8 | 59.4 | 52.8 |
Prices Paid | 64.5 | 71.2 | 67.0 | 70.9 | 74.0 | 64.1 | 53.2 |