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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 28, 2019
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales declined 1.0% (-4.9% y/y) during February following a 4.3% gain, revised from 4.6%. Sales have declined 9.7% since the peak in April 2016.
Sales were mixed throughout the country. In the Midwest sales declined 7.2% (-6.1% y/y) after a 3.0% rise. In the Northeast sales slipped 0.8% (-2.6% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Offsetting these declines, sales rose 1.7% in the South (-2.9% y/y) after an 8.9% jump. In the West sales improved 0.5% (-9.6% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity anticipates the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
Pending Home Sales (SA, 2001=100) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 101.9 | 102.9 | 98.7 | -4.9 | 104.7 | 109.1 | 109.8 |
Northeast | 92.1 | 92.8 | 92.5 | -2.6 | 92.4 | 97.1 | 96.4 |
Midwest | 93.2 | 100.4 | 97.5 | -6.1 | 100.2 | 104.9 | 107.4 |
South | 121.8 | 119.8 | 110.0 | -2.9 | 121.6 | 123.9 | 123.0 |
West | 87.5 | 87.1 | 87.0 | -9.6 | 92.3 | 99.5 | 102.3 |