Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
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- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 22, 2019
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government budget deficit for February of $234.0 billion compared to a $215.2 billion deficit one year earlier. A $227.0 billion shortfall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the first five months of FY'19, the deficit deepened to $544.2 billion compared to a deficit of $391.0 billion during the same period of FY'18.
Net revenues eased 0.6% y/y so far this fiscal year. Individual income receipts fell by 3.3% y/y so far in FY'19, compared to a 6.1% rise during all of FY'18. The marked cut in corporate tax rates reduced business income taxes by 19.5% y/y. Social insurance receipts rose 4.7% y/y following a 0.8% gain in FY'18, and excise taxes rose by roughly one-quarter y/y after last year's 13.3% increase.
Government spending increased 8.7% y/y so far in FY'19. National defense spending strengthened 11.1% y/y, roughly double the y/y gain during all of last year. Spending on health programs increased 8.2% y/y while Medicare outlays rose 14.4% y/y. Growth in income security payments has increased 6.3% y/y so far in FY'19. Social Security payments gained a steady 5.5% y/y. Interest payments rose by 15.8% y/y with the larger budget deficit.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | Feb | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-234.0 | $-779.0 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 |
As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
% of Total | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y Change) | 100 | -0.6% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% |
Individual Income Taxes | 51 | -3.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 |
Corporate Income Taxes | -- | -19.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 35 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 |
Excise Taxes | 3 | 23.6 | 13.3 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
National Defense | 16 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
Health | 13 | 8.2 | 3.3 | -1.9 | 6.2 | 17.8 |
Medicare | 14 | 14.4 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 |
Income Security | 12 | 6.3 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
Social Security | 24 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 20.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 2 | 7.9 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 |
Interest | 8 | 15.8 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | -1.8 |