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Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller March 19, 2019
Manufacturers' orders gained 0.1% (4.2% y/y) during January, the same as in December which was unrevised. The 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for durable goods improved 0.3% (8.4% y/y), unrevised from the advance report. More orders for transportation equipment led the advance with a 1.2% gain (16.3% y/y), powered by a 15.6% surge (26.1% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts. Motor vehicle & parts orders gained 0.4% (7.9% y/y). Factory orders excluding transportation eased 0.2% (+1.8% y/y). Electrical equipment bookings increased 1.4% (6.1% y/y), but orders for computers & electronic products declined 0.9% (+6.2% y/y). Also weakening were primary metals orders which fell 2.0% (+8.1% y/y).
Overall shipments from the factory sector fell 0.4% (+3.0% y/y). Shipments of durable goods declined 0.5% (+6.0% y/y), led by a 1.3% decline (+9.5% y/y) in transportation shipments. Total shipments excluding transportation eased 0.2% (+1.7% y/y), off for the third straight month. Machinery sector shipments gained 0.8% (4.0% y/y) and computer & electronic product shipments improved 0.1% (5.3% y/y). Nondurable goods shipments, which equal orders, declined 0.2% (+0.1% y/y), off for the third consecutive month. Petroleum refinery shipments eased 0.4% (-7.4% y/y). Paper product shipments gained 0.5% (0.8% y/y) but apparel shipments fell 0.3% (+3.0% y/y).
Unfilled orders in the factory sector gained 0.1% (4.3% y/y) following three consecutive months of decline. Transportation sector backlogs rose 0.1% (4.1% y/y), and excluding transportation, unfilled orders also rose 0.1% (4.3% y/y) after two 0.2% gains. Computer & electronic equipment backlogs rose 0.1% (3.9% y/y) but unfilled orders for electrical equipment & appliances declined 0.3% (+1.1% y/y). Backlogs of furniture & related products rose 0.7% (3.2% y/y). Unfilled machinery sector orders eased 0.1% (+2.2% y/y), down for the third straight month.
Inventories in the factory sector rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y), the largest increase in four months. The rise was driven by a 0.9% gain (3.6% /y) in transportation equipment inventories. Excluding transportation, inventories increased 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Durable goods inventories rose 0.5% (4.9% y/y) as machinery inventories rose 0.5% (5.9% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.8% (8.6% y/y), but computer & electronic products inventories fell 0.2% (+0.7% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories strengthened 0.7% (1.8% y/y) as the value of petroleum refinery inventories surged 3.9% (-7.4% y/y) with higher prices. Apparel inventories fell 0.5% (+1.2% y/y), down for the third straight month, but paper product inventories rose 0.9% (3.4% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 5.7 | -2.9 |
Shipments | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
Inventories | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |