Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 19, 2019
Manufacturers' orders gained 0.1% (4.2% y/y) during January, the same as in December which was unrevised. The 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for durable goods improved 0.3% (8.4% y/y), unrevised from the advance report. More orders for transportation equipment led the advance with a 1.2% gain (16.3% y/y), powered by a 15.6% surge (26.1% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts. Motor vehicle & parts orders gained 0.4% (7.9% y/y). Factory orders excluding transportation eased 0.2% (+1.8% y/y). Electrical equipment bookings increased 1.4% (6.1% y/y), but orders for computers & electronic products declined 0.9% (+6.2% y/y). Also weakening were primary metals orders which fell 2.0% (+8.1% y/y).
Overall shipments from the factory sector fell 0.4% (+3.0% y/y). Shipments of durable goods declined 0.5% (+6.0% y/y), led by a 1.3% decline (+9.5% y/y) in transportation shipments. Total shipments excluding transportation eased 0.2% (+1.7% y/y), off for the third straight month. Machinery sector shipments gained 0.8% (4.0% y/y) and computer & electronic product shipments improved 0.1% (5.3% y/y). Nondurable goods shipments, which equal orders, declined 0.2% (+0.1% y/y), off for the third consecutive month. Petroleum refinery shipments eased 0.4% (-7.4% y/y). Paper product shipments gained 0.5% (0.8% y/y) but apparel shipments fell 0.3% (+3.0% y/y).
Unfilled orders in the factory sector gained 0.1% (4.3% y/y) following three consecutive months of decline. Transportation sector backlogs rose 0.1% (4.1% y/y), and excluding transportation, unfilled orders also rose 0.1% (4.3% y/y) after two 0.2% gains. Computer & electronic equipment backlogs rose 0.1% (3.9% y/y) but unfilled orders for electrical equipment & appliances declined 0.3% (+1.1% y/y). Backlogs of furniture & related products rose 0.7% (3.2% y/y). Unfilled machinery sector orders eased 0.1% (+2.2% y/y), down for the third straight month.
Inventories in the factory sector rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y), the largest increase in four months. The rise was driven by a 0.9% gain (3.6% /y) in transportation equipment inventories. Excluding transportation, inventories increased 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Durable goods inventories rose 0.5% (4.9% y/y) as machinery inventories rose 0.5% (5.9% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.8% (8.6% y/y), but computer & electronic products inventories fell 0.2% (+0.7% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories strengthened 0.7% (1.8% y/y) as the value of petroleum refinery inventories surged 3.9% (-7.4% y/y) with higher prices. Apparel inventories fell 0.5% (+1.2% y/y), down for the third straight month, but paper product inventories rose 0.9% (3.4% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 5.7 | -2.9 |
Shipments | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
Inventories | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |