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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 15, 2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate increased to 4.8% during January and matched the record high. The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job openings level. Finding workers to fill those openings became a bit more successful. The hiring rate improved to 3.9%, but has been moving sideways for about a year. In this tight labor market, employers remain hesitant to let people go. The layoff & discharge rate dropped to a record low of 1.1%. And with jobs plentiful, workers seem ready to seek out new positions. The quits rate held steady at a near-record 2.3%. The JOLTS data begin in 2000.
The private-sector job openings rate eased slightly to a near-record 5.1%. In leisure & hospitality, the rate held at 6.2%. In professional & business services, it eased to 5.9%, but remained up from 5.1% twelve months earlier. In education & health services, the rate strengthened to a record 5.5%, but in trade, transportation & utilities, it fell to a still-strong 5.0%. The rate held at 3.9% in construction and in manufacturing, it remained low at 3.4%. The job openings rate in government improved to 2.9%, and remained up sharply versus the 2009 low of 1.2%.
The level of job openings increased 15.0% in January to 7.581 million. Private-sector openings increased 0.6% (14.6% y/y) while government sector job openings rose 19.8% y/y.
The private-sector hiring rate eased to 4.2% and remained below May's eleven-year high of 4.4%. The rate in leisure & hospitality jumped to 6.7%. In professional & business services it weakened to 5.3%, and remained below the 2017 high of 6.1%. The construction sector's hiring rate rose sharply to 5.7%, and nearly equaled the January 2017 high of 5.8%. The hiring rate in trade, transportation & utilities fell sharply to 4.0%, the lowest level in a year. In education & health services, the rate held steady at 3.0%. In manufacturing, the rate was firm at 2.8%. The hiring rate in government has been moving sideways near 1.7%.
Total hiring increased 5.0% y/y to a near-record 5.801 million. Hiring in the private sector rose 4.5% y/y while government sector hiring strengthened 12.7% y/y.
With the strong labor market, the overall job separations rate has risen to 3.7% and remained near the expansion high. The private sector separations rate increased to 4.1%, but was below the cycle high of 4.2% reached in July. The separations rate in government rose slightly to 1.6%.
The level of separations strengthened 4.4% y/y. In the private sector, they were up 4.2% y/y led by an 18.8% surge in the construction sector. In educational and health services separations rose 7.7% y/y but in trade, transportation & utilities, separations eased 0.5%. Leisure & hospitality job separations increased 4.5% y/y but in manufacturing, they fell 1.4% y/y. In the financial sector, separations decreased 13.5% y/y. Separations in the information sector also declined 10.3% y/y but professional & business services job separations rose 5.9% y/y. Separations in the government sector increased 7.5% y/y.
In another sign of a strong labor market, the level of quits rose 13.5% y/y to 3.490 million in January. The quits rate of 2.3% remained up sharply from 1.3% at the beginning of the expansion. The private-sector quits rate held at 2.6%, the highest level in 13 years. The government sector quits rate surged to a record 0.9%.
The level of layoffs in the private sector declined 11.2% y/y and the layoff rate held steady at 1.3%, down from the 2009 high of 2.2%. The government sector layoff rate held at the record low 0.4%.
The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'18 | Jan'17 | Jan'16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 4.0 |
Total (000s) | 7,581 | 7,479 | 7,626 | 6,591 | 5,624 | 5,977 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
Total (000s) | 5,801 | 5,717 | 5,821 | 5,525 | 5,528 | 5,214 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Total (000s) | 1,723 | 1,751 | 1,889 | 1,934 | 1,735 | 1,806 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
Total (000s) | 3,490 | 3,391 | 3,379 | 3,022 | 3,154 | 2,883 |