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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen March 15, 2019
Industrial production increased a less-than-expected 0.1% (3.5% year-on-year) during February following an upwardly revised 0.4% decline in January (was -0.6%). The Action Economics Survey forecast 0.4% growth in February.
Manufacturing activity fell 0.4% (+1.0% y/y) during February, though January was revised higher to -0.5% from -0.9%. Utilities output jumped 3.7% (9.0% y/y), as a result of a return to more seasonal weather. Meanwhile mining activity continued its upward trend rising 0.3% (12.5% y/y).
The decrease in manufacturing production was driven by a 0.7% drop in nondurables (unchanged y/y). Durable output declined 0.1% (+2.4% y/y) with motor vehicles down 0.1% (-3.2% y/y) and machinery falling 1.9% (+4.3% y/y). These were somewhat offset by computers and aerospace which were up 1.4% (5.6% y/y) and 1.1% (8.1% y/y) respectively. In the nondurable sector, petroleum & coal plummeted 5.2% (-0.9% y/y), chemicals fell 0.6% (+2.8% y/y), while food grew 0.3% (-1.4% y/y).
By market group, consumer goods output edged down 0.1% in February (+0.1% y/y). Business equipment dropped 1.0% (+3.7% y/y). Construction supplies declined 0.5% (+1.4% y/y). Materials gained 0.5% (5.9% y/y), with energy materials up 1.0% (10.8% y/y).
In the special aggregate groupings, production of high technology products was unchanged (3.7% y/y). Slight gains (0.1%) in semiconductor & electronic components (1.8% y/y) as well as computer & office equipment (-1.1% y/y) were offset by a 0.3% decline in communications equipment (+12.1% y/y). Factory sector production excluding the motor vehicle and high tech sectors declined 0.2% (+1.5% y/y).
Capacity utilization edged down to 78.2% in February, below the 78.5% expectations from Action Economics Survey. Factory sector use declined to 75.4% down 0.8 percentage point from December. Mining decreased to 94.6% after reaching a cycle high 95.2% in December. Growth in capacity in the manufacturing sector continues to accelerate, up a cyclical high 1.4% y/y in February.
Industrial production and capacity data and US Population-Weighted Heating and Cooling Days are included in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail on production and capacity can be found in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | -1.9 |
Manufacturing | -0.4 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | -0.8 |
Consumer Goods | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Business Equipment | -1.0 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 | -5.3 |
Construction Supplies | -0.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
Materials | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | -3.0 |
Utilities | 3.7 | -0.9 | -5.2 | 9.0 | 4.3 | -1.3 | -0.4 |
Mining | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.4 | -9.7 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.2 | 78.3 | 78.7 | 77.2 | 78.0 | 76.1 | 75.4 |
Manufacturing | 75.4 | 75.8 | 76.2 | 75.7 | 75.7 | 74.8 | 74.6 |