Recent Updates
- China: GDP (Q1)
- Euro area: CSPP Holdings Detail (Q1)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-prelim), New Residential Constr (Mar)
- Hong Kong: Personal Bankruptcy Petitions, Clearing
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen March 13, 2019
New orders for durable goods unexpectedly rose 0.4% (8.4% year-on-year) during January following small offsetting revisions in November and December. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.8% decline in January. A 13.1% jump in volatile aircraft orders (34.4% y/y) drove the gain; orders for motor vehicles decreased 1.0% (+9.7% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, durable goods bookings edged down 0.1% (+4.5% y/y). Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft, which is a forward-looking indicator of capital spending, gained 0.8% (4.1% y/y), following declines in the previous two months. In the fourth quarter, inflation-adjusted nonresidential fixed investment grew at a 6.2% annual rate (7.2% y/y).
Machinery orders increased 1.4% in January (3.4% y/y). Electrical equipment rose 1.7% (6.6% y/y), while fabricated metals were unchanged (7.0% y/y). Orders for primary metals fell 1.5% (+8.6% y/y) and computers declined 1.3% (+5.7% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods decreased 0.5% during January (+6.0% y/y) following a slightly downwardly-revised 0.7% gain. Excluding the transportation sector, shipments were unchanged (4.3% y/y). Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft grew 0.8% (4.4% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods edged up 0.1% (4.3% y/y); excluding transportation, order backlogs also grew 0.1% (4.7% y/y). Inventories of durable goods increased 0.4% (4.9% y/y). Excluding transportation, inventories gained 0.2% (5.5% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
Transportation | 1.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 16.1 | 9.6 | 3.4 | -0.7 |
Total Excluding Transportation | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 2.5 | 4.4 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
Excluding Aircraft | 0.8 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
Shipments | -0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | -2.4 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
Inventories | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -3.0 |