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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips in January
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Euro Area Inflation Persists in Negative Territory
Euro area inflation is negative on a year-over-year basis for five months in a row...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen March 13, 2019
New orders for durable goods unexpectedly rose 0.4% (8.4% year-on-year) during January following small offsetting revisions in November and December. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.8% decline in January. A 13.1% jump in volatile aircraft orders (34.4% y/y) drove the gain; orders for motor vehicles decreased 1.0% (+9.7% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, durable goods bookings edged down 0.1% (+4.5% y/y). Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft, which is a forward-looking indicator of capital spending, gained 0.8% (4.1% y/y), following declines in the previous two months. In the fourth quarter, inflation-adjusted nonresidential fixed investment grew at a 6.2% annual rate (7.2% y/y).
Machinery orders increased 1.4% in January (3.4% y/y). Electrical equipment rose 1.7% (6.6% y/y), while fabricated metals were unchanged (7.0% y/y). Orders for primary metals fell 1.5% (+8.6% y/y) and computers declined 1.3% (+5.7% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods decreased 0.5% during January (+6.0% y/y) following a slightly downwardly-revised 0.7% gain. Excluding the transportation sector, shipments were unchanged (4.3% y/y). Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft grew 0.8% (4.4% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods edged up 0.1% (4.3% y/y); excluding transportation, order backlogs also grew 0.1% (4.7% y/y). Inventories of durable goods increased 0.4% (4.9% y/y). Excluding transportation, inventories gained 0.2% (5.5% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
Transportation | 1.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 16.1 | 9.6 | 3.4 | -0.7 |
Total Excluding Transportation | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 2.5 | 4.4 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
Excluding Aircraft | 0.8 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
Shipments | -0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | -2.4 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
Inventories | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -3.0 |