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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 11, 2019
Total business inventories rose 0.6% (4.9% y/y) during December after holding steady in November. Total business sales fell 1.0% (+1.9% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. The inventory-to-sales ratio increased to 1.38, its highest level since the middle of 2017.
Retail inventories increased 0.9% (4.0% y/y) in December following a 0.4% decline. Auto inventories improved 0.6% (9.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Non-auto retail inventories rebounded 1.0% (1.1% y/y) and recovered November's decline. General merchandise inventories rebounded 0.9% (-0.1% y/y) after a 2.1% drop. In the department store sector, inventories recovered 1.0% (-5.2% y/y) after tumbling 5.3% in the prior month. Building materials inventories rose 0.9% (7.0% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick, while clothing store inventories rebounded 1.4% (0.6% y/y) following a 0.7% decline. Inventories of furniture, electronics and appliances recovered 0.7% (-1.3% y/y) after dropping 4.6%. As reported earlier, wholesale inventories surged 1.1% (6.9% y/y) following a 0.4% increase. Factory sector inventories were fairly steady (4.2% y/y) after a 0.1% slip.
Retail sales stumbled 1.8% (+0.3% y/y) during December after holding steady. Non-auto sales moved 2.5% lower (-0.2% y/y) after little change. Wholesale sector sales fell 1.0% (+1.2% y/y), about the same as they did in November. Shipments from the factory sector eased 0.2% (+4.3% y/y), down for the third straight month.
The overall business inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio surged to 1.38. The retail sector ratio jumped to 1.47, its highest point since August of 2017. The non-auto I/S ratio strengthened to 1.21, its highest level since April 2018. The wholesale sector I/S ratio rose to 1.33, the highest level since the middle of 2016. The manufacturing sector I/S ratio held steady at 1.35 and remained near the three-year low.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.6 | -0.0 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
Retail | 0.9 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 4.1 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.0 | -0.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
Manufacturing | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | -1.0 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | -0.6 |
Retail | -1.8 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -2.5 | -0.0 | 0.9 | -0.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -1.0 | -1.2 | -0.6 | 1.2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | -1.3 |
Manufacturing | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 4.7 | -3.0 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.42 |
Retail | 1.47 | 1.43 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.48 | 1.49 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.21 | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.28 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1.28 | 1.30 | 1.35 |
Manufacturing | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.41 |