Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales (Mar), FHFA Monthly HPI (Feb)
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Improvement Slows
The FHFA Price Index for house purchases rose 0.3% in February...
U.S. Energy Prices Plateau
Retail gasoline prices edged one penny higher last week to $2.84 per gallon last week (1.5% y/y). ...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Weaken as Prices Rise
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes fell 4.9% (-5.4% y/y) during March to 5.210 million units (SAAR)...
U.S. Housing Starts Weaken to Nearly Two-Year Low
Total housing starts during March eased 0.3% (-14.2% y/y) to 1.139 million (SAAR)...
Confidence, Italian Style, Erodes a Bit
Consumer and business confidence peaked in the mature portion of this cycle about 1.5 years ago...
by Tom Moeller March 11, 2019
Consumers remain in a cautious mood. Total retail sales improved just 0.2% during January (+2.6% y/y) after pulling back spending by 1.6% in December, revised from -1.2%. A 0.1% uptick had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Lower sales of motor vehicle sector depressed last months' gain with a 2.4% decline (+0.5% y/y) after two months of 0.3% improvement. As reported earlier, unit sales of motor vehicles fell 4.8% during January. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose 0.9% following a 2.1% drop. A 0.5% rise had been expected.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales rebounded 1.1% (2.9% y/y) after a little-revised 1.1% rise.
The improvement in sales last month was led by a 4.8% surge (-6.2% y/y in sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales after falling sharply in each of the prior nine months. Sales of building material stores jumped 3.3% (10.4% y/y) after a 0.5% dip. Online retail sales jumped 2.6% (6.3% y/y), making up half of the prior month's drop. General merchandise store sales improved 0.8% (3.2% y/y) following a 1.5% decline. To the downside were sales of clothing & accessory stores which dropped 1.3% (+2.1% y/y) and repeated December's fall. Furniture & home furnishings stores fell 1.2% (-2.5% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Sales at electronics and appliance stores eased 0.3% (-3.2% y/y) and have been lackluster for seven straight months.
Reflecting lower prices, gasoline service station sales declined 2.0% (-3.8% y/y) after weakening in three of the prior four months.
Sales of nondiscretionary items improved last month as health & personal care product store sales recovered 1.6% (2.4% y/y) after a 3.3% decline. Food & beverage store sales rebounded 1.1% (4.0% y/y) following a 0.3% easing.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales recovered 0.7% (5.7% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2 | -1.6 | -0.0 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.9 | -2.1 | -0.1 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 |
| Retail Sales | 0.2 | -1.8 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -2.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.9 | -2.5 | -0.0 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| Gasoline Stations | -2.0 | -5.7 | -4.2 | -3.8 | 13.0 | 8.8 | -5.7 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.7 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 5.6 |
