Recent Updates
- ***Rwanda IP rebased from 2014=100 to 2017=100***
- Japan: Motor Vehicle Sales (Mar)
- New Zealand: Commodity Price Index (Mar)
- Australia: MI Inflation Gauge Index (Mar)
- Construction PMIs: Ireland (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Misleadingly Strong in March
ISM Nonmanufacturing index declined substantially less than expected to 52.5...
Composite PMIs Show True and Sudden Weakness
While the deterioration experienced in most PMIs whether sector or composite generally is severe in March...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Double to 6.6 Million
Initial jobless claims for unemployment insurance were 6.648 million (3,051% y/y) in the week ending March 28...
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Tumble
Auto showrooms quiet as coronavirus flares up...
U.S. Factory Orders, Shipments & Inventories Ease Ahead of Coronavirus
Factory orders fell slightly (+0.1% y/y) during February...
by Tom Moeller March 11, 2019
Consumers remain in a cautious mood. Total retail sales improved just 0.2% during January (+2.6% y/y) after pulling back spending by 1.6% in December, revised from -1.2%. A 0.1% uptick had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Lower sales of motor vehicle sector depressed last months' gain with a 2.4% decline (+0.5% y/y) after two months of 0.3% improvement. As reported earlier, unit sales of motor vehicles fell 4.8% during January. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose 0.9% following a 2.1% drop. A 0.5% rise had been expected.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales rebounded 1.1% (2.9% y/y) after a little-revised 1.1% rise.
The improvement in sales last month was led by a 4.8% surge (-6.2% y/y in sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales after falling sharply in each of the prior nine months. Sales of building material stores jumped 3.3% (10.4% y/y) after a 0.5% dip. Online retail sales jumped 2.6% (6.3% y/y), making up half of the prior month's drop. General merchandise store sales improved 0.8% (3.2% y/y) following a 1.5% decline. To the downside were sales of clothing & accessory stores which dropped 1.3% (+2.1% y/y) and repeated December's fall. Furniture & home furnishings stores fell 1.2% (-2.5% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Sales at electronics and appliance stores eased 0.3% (-3.2% y/y) and have been lackluster for seven straight months.
Reflecting lower prices, gasoline service station sales declined 2.0% (-3.8% y/y) after weakening in three of the prior four months.
Sales of nondiscretionary items improved last month as health & personal care product store sales recovered 1.6% (2.4% y/y) after a 3.3% decline. Food & beverage store sales rebounded 1.1% (4.0% y/y) following a 0.3% easing.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales recovered 0.7% (5.7% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2 | -1.6 | -0.0 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.9 | -2.1 | -0.1 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 |
| Retail Sales | 0.2 | -1.8 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -2.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.9 | -2.5 | -0.0 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| Gasoline Stations | -2.0 | -5.7 | -4.2 | -3.8 | 13.0 | 8.8 | -5.7 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.7 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 5.6 |
