Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 11, 2019
Consumers remain in a cautious mood. Total retail sales improved just 0.2% during January (+2.6% y/y) after pulling back spending by 1.6% in December, revised from -1.2%. A 0.1% uptick had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Lower sales of motor vehicle sector depressed last months' gain with a 2.4% decline (+0.5% y/y) after two months of 0.3% improvement. As reported earlier, unit sales of motor vehicles fell 4.8% during January. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose 0.9% following a 2.1% drop. A 0.5% rise had been expected.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales rebounded 1.1% (2.9% y/y) after a little-revised 1.1% rise.
The improvement in sales last month was led by a 4.8% surge (-6.2% y/y in sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales after falling sharply in each of the prior nine months. Sales of building material stores jumped 3.3% (10.4% y/y) after a 0.5% dip. Online retail sales jumped 2.6% (6.3% y/y), making up half of the prior month's drop. General merchandise store sales improved 0.8% (3.2% y/y) following a 1.5% decline. To the downside were sales of clothing & accessory stores which dropped 1.3% (+2.1% y/y) and repeated December's fall. Furniture & home furnishings stores fell 1.2% (-2.5% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Sales at electronics and appliance stores eased 0.3% (-3.2% y/y) and have been lackluster for seven straight months.
Reflecting lower prices, gasoline service station sales declined 2.0% (-3.8% y/y) after weakening in three of the prior four months.
Sales of nondiscretionary items improved last month as health & personal care product store sales recovered 1.6% (2.4% y/y) after a 3.3% decline. Food & beverage store sales rebounded 1.1% (4.0% y/y) following a 0.3% easing.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales recovered 0.7% (5.7% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2 | -1.6 | -0.0 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
Excluding Autos | 0.9 | -2.1 | -0.1 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 |
Retail Sales | 0.2 | -1.8 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -2.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.9 | -2.5 | -0.0 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
Gasoline Stations | -2.0 | -5.7 | -4.2 | -3.8 | 13.0 | 8.8 | -5.7 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.7 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 5.6 |