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Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 5, 2019
New home sales increased 3.7% to 621,000 during December following a November increase to 599,000, revised from 657,000. It was the highest level of sales in six months. During all of 2018, new home sales increased 0.9% to 621,000, the highest level since 2007. December sales of 585,000 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The government shutdown delayed this report by roughly five weeks. These sales transactions are recorded when sales contracts are signed or deposits are made.
The median price of a new home rose 5.0% (-7.2% y/y) in December to $318,600. For the full year, the median price was fairly steady y/y at a record $321,483. The average price of a new home rose slightly m/m to $377,000 (-6.4% y/y) and was steady for the full year at $377,992.
By region, sales in the Northeast rose to 42,000 (16.7% y/y) while sales in the South improved to 375,000 (7.4% y/y). New home sales in the West were fairly steady at 143,000 (-23.9% y/y), but sales in the Midwest declined to 61,000 (-3.2% y/y).
The months' supply of homes on the market eased to 6.6 in December, but was up from 5.5 months twelve months earlier. The figure was increased versus the low of 4.5 months in July 2016. The median number of months a new home was on the market after its completion increased to a still low 3.3 months.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Modeling Financial Crises from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 621 | 599 | 549 | -2.4 | 621 | 616 | 560 |
Northeast | 42 | 39 | 23 | 16.7 | 34 | 40 | 32 |
Midwest | 61 | 72 | 63 | -3.2 | 76 | 72 | 69 |
South | 375 | 357 | 300 | 7.4 | 350 | 341 | 317 |
West | 143 | 141 | 163 | -23.9 | 162 | 164 | 142 |
Median Price (NSA, $) | 318,600 | 303,500 | 324,700 | -7.2 | 321,483 | 321,633 | 306,500 |