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- Italy: Retail Trade (Jan)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen March 1, 2019 The ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly declined to 54.2 in February, the weakest reading since November 2016. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated an increase to 56.0. Over the past ten years, there has been a 62% correlation between the index level and quarter-to-quarter growth in real GDP. According to the ISM press release, the January reading is consistent with real GDP growth of around 3.3%.
Four out of five of the subcomponents of the headline index declined. The exception was inventories, which increased to 53.4 from 52.8. The new orders index decreased to 55.5 from 58.2, production fell to 54.8, and supplier deliveries continued its slide to 54.9. The employment measure dropped to 52.3, a two-year low. Of note, the new export order index rose 1.0 point to 52.8, perhaps reflecting some easing in trade tensions. All of these levels are consistent with continued, but slower growth in manufacturing activity and hiring.
Despite a rebound in commodity prices, the prices paid index – which is not seasonally adjusted – edged down to 49.4 in February, the lowest reading in three years. Only 20.0% of respondents reported paying higher prices, the smallest percentage since November 2016.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database; further detail is found in the SURVEYS database. Commodity prices can be found in USECON as well as the CMDTY database. The expectations number is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
ISM Mfg (SA) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb'18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Headline Index | 54.2 | 56.6 | 54.3 | 60.7 | 58.8 | 57.4 | 51.3 |
New Orders | 55.5 | 58.2 | 51.3 | 64.3 | 61.5 | 62.2 | 54.5 |
Production | 54.8 | 60.5 | 54.1 | 62.0 | 60.7 | 60.9 | 53.8 |
Employment | 52.3 | 55.5 | 56.0 | 59.2 | 56.9 | 56.8 | 49.1 |
Supplier Deliveries | 54.9 | 56.2 | 59.0 | 61.1 | 62.0 | 56.8 | 51.8 |
Inventories | 53.4 | 52.8 | 51.2 | 56.7 | 52.9 | 50.4 | 47.5 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 49.4 | 49.6 | 54.9 | 74.2 | 71.7 | 65.0 | 53.1 |