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Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen March 1, 2019 The ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly declined to 54.2 in February, the weakest reading since November 2016. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated an increase to 56.0. Over the past ten years, there has been a 62% correlation between the index level and quarter-to-quarter growth in real GDP. According to the ISM press release, the January reading is consistent with real GDP growth of around 3.3%.
Four out of five of the subcomponents of the headline index declined. The exception was inventories, which increased to 53.4 from 52.8. The new orders index decreased to 55.5 from 58.2, production fell to 54.8, and supplier deliveries continued its slide to 54.9. The employment measure dropped to 52.3, a two-year low. Of note, the new export order index rose 1.0 point to 52.8, perhaps reflecting some easing in trade tensions. All of these levels are consistent with continued, but slower growth in manufacturing activity and hiring.
Despite a rebound in commodity prices, the prices paid index – which is not seasonally adjusted – edged down to 49.4 in February, the lowest reading in three years. Only 20.0% of respondents reported paying higher prices, the smallest percentage since November 2016.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database; further detail is found in the SURVEYS database. Commodity prices can be found in USECON as well as the CMDTY database. The expectations number is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
ISM Mfg (SA) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb'18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Headline Index | 54.2 | 56.6 | 54.3 | 60.7 | 58.8 | 57.4 | 51.3 |
New Orders | 55.5 | 58.2 | 51.3 | 64.3 | 61.5 | 62.2 | 54.5 |
Production | 54.8 | 60.5 | 54.1 | 62.0 | 60.7 | 60.9 | 53.8 |
Employment | 52.3 | 55.5 | 56.0 | 59.2 | 56.9 | 56.8 | 49.1 |
Supplier Deliveries | 54.9 | 56.2 | 59.0 | 61.1 | 62.0 | 56.8 | 51.8 |
Inventories | 53.4 | 52.8 | 51.2 | 56.7 | 52.9 | 50.4 | 47.5 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 49.4 | 49.6 | 54.9 | 74.2 | 71.7 | 65.0 | 53.1 |