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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen February 21, 2019 New orders for durable goods increased 1.2% (3.5% year-on-year) during December following an upwardly-revised 1.0% gain in November (this report was delayed as a result of the government shutdown). A 1.7% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 4.8% jump in volatile aircraft orders (-24.8% y/y) as well as a 2.1% increase in motor vehicles (11.6% y/y) drove the gain. Excluding the transportation sector, durable goods bookings edged up 0.1% (3.5% y/y). Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft fell 0.7% (+2.5% y/y) and were down at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter. In Q3, core capital goods orders grew at an 8.0% pace. This data suggests weakness ahead in equipment spending.
Machinery orders declined 0.4% in December (+0.2% y/y). Electrical equipment edged down 0.1% (+3.9% y/y) and primary metals decreased 0.9% (+8.2% y/y). Orders for computers were unchanged (7.8% y/y), fabricated metals up 0.3% (6.0% y/y), and other durable goods grew 0.9% (-0.8% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods increased 0.8% during December (7.1% y/y) following an upwardly-revised 1.0% gain (was 0.7%). Excluding the transportation sector, shipments gained 0.4% (4.4% y/y). Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft grew 0.5% (3.7% y/y) and were up at a 2.3% annual rate in Q4. In Q3 core capital goods shipments rose at 6.9% annual rate.
Unfilled orders for durable goods eased 0.1% (+3.8% y/y); excluding transportation, order backlogs were unchanged (4.5% y/y). Inventories of durable goods rose 0.2% (4.5% y/y). Excluding transportation, inventories increased 0.4% (5.4% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, % chg) | 1.2 | 1.0 | -4.3 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
Transportation | 3.3 | 3.4 | -12.4 | 3.5 | 9.7 | 3.4 | -0.7 |
Total Excluding Transportation | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 3.7 | 0.3 | -4.7 | 0.3 | 5.6 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
Excluding Aircraft | -0.7 | -1.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
Shipments | 0.8 | 1.0 | -0.3 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | -2.4 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
Inventories | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | -3.0 |