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by Gerald D. Cohen February 21, 2019 New orders for durable goods increased 1.2% (3.5% year-on-year) during December following an upwardly-revised 1.0% gain in November (this report was delayed as a result of the government shutdown). A 1.7% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 4.8% jump in volatile aircraft orders (-24.8% y/y) as well as a 2.1% increase in motor vehicles (11.6% y/y) drove the gain. Excluding the transportation sector, durable goods bookings edged up 0.1% (3.5% y/y). Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft fell 0.7% (+2.5% y/y) and were down at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter. In Q3, core capital goods orders grew at an 8.0% pace. This data suggests weakness ahead in equipment spending.
Machinery orders declined 0.4% in December (+0.2% y/y). Electrical equipment edged down 0.1% (+3.9% y/y) and primary metals decreased 0.9% (+8.2% y/y). Orders for computers were unchanged (7.8% y/y), fabricated metals up 0.3% (6.0% y/y), and other durable goods grew 0.9% (-0.8% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods increased 0.8% during December (7.1% y/y) following an upwardly-revised 1.0% gain (was 0.7%). Excluding the transportation sector, shipments gained 0.4% (4.4% y/y). Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft grew 0.5% (3.7% y/y) and were up at a 2.3% annual rate in Q4. In Q3 core capital goods shipments rose at 6.9% annual rate.
Unfilled orders for durable goods eased 0.1% (+3.8% y/y); excluding transportation, order backlogs were unchanged (4.5% y/y). Inventories of durable goods rose 0.2% (4.5% y/y). Excluding transportation, inventories increased 0.4% (5.4% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, % chg) | 1.2 | 1.0 | -4.3 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
Transportation | 3.3 | 3.4 | -12.4 | 3.5 | 9.7 | 3.4 | -0.7 |
Total Excluding Transportation | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 3.7 | 0.3 | -4.7 | 0.3 | 5.6 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
Excluding Aircraft | -0.7 | -1.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
Shipments | 0.8 | 1.0 | -0.3 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | -2.4 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
Inventories | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | -3.0 |