The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 2.8% during the last four weeks, but were 11.5% below the prior year's level. Individual commodity price gains were mixed amongst categories.

Metals prices increased 5.8% over the last month led by a 16.4% m/m rise in steel scrap prices, which eased at the end of last week, and a 6.6% increase in zinc prices. Copper scrap prices also firmed 4.2% and aluminum prices gained 2.0%. Prices in the miscellaneous group rose 3.0% m/m led by a 13.1% jump in framing lumber prices, though they remained one-quarter below the year-ago level. Structural panel prices fell 2.8% and also held more than 25% below last year. The cost of natural rubber rose 1.0% last month and 4.6% y/y. A 2.4% m/m gain (-12.2% y/y) in prices in the crude oil & benzene category was led by a 3.5% rise (-10.8% y/y) in crude oil prices to $53.65 per barrel, up from the $45.02 year-end low. Crude rose to $54.56 on Friday, but remained below the $75.05 peak early in October. Prices for petro-chemical benzene recovered 6.0% during the last month. Nevertheless, they continued to be one-third below the year-ago level. In the textile group, prices were little changed m/m and down 3.0% y/y. Cotton prices fell 3.9% m/m (-10.3% y/y) while burlap prices gained 1.4% m/m (-13.4% y/y).

Recent improvement in industrial commodity prices followed a 0.8% decline (+2.8% y/y) in factory sector output during January. The consensus forecast from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) calls for a 2.7% rise in industrial output during all of 2019. During the last ten years, there has been a 66% correlation between the y/y change in industrial commodity prices and the y/y change in factory sector output.

Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases. The NABE forecast is in the SURVEYS database.