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Economy in Brief
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Up
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index edged up 0.5% w/w (5.4% y/y) in the week ended February 26...
Global PMIs Show Ongoing Struggle with Growth Global PMIs Show Ongoing Struggle with Growth
While manufacturing climbs higher, the services sector remains stuck...
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Weaken in February
Sales of light vehicles declined 5.6% during February (-6.7% y/y) to 15.88 million units...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.71 per gallon (11.9% y/y) in the week ended March 1...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 14, 2019
Consumers cut back on spending late in 2018, to the greatest degree since 2009. Total retail sales declined 1.2% (+2.3% y/y) during December following a 0.1% November uptick, revised from 0.2%. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A pocket of strength was in the motor vehicle sector where sales rose 1.0% (3.4% y/y) following two months of strong increase. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales fell 1.8% following a little change in November, revised from 0.2%. A 0.1% uptick had been expected.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales fell 1.7% (+1.9% y/y) after a 1.0% rise.
The retrenchment in retail spending was evident throughout the report. Sales of sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music stores plummeted 4.9% (-13.0% y/y) and have fallen sharply in each of the last nine months. Nonstore retail sales dropped 3.9% (+3.7% y/y) and reversed the prior month's increase. Purchases at furniture & home furnishings stores fell 1.3% (-0.2% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Sales at electronics and appliance stores eased 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) and have been lackluster for six straight months. General merchandise store sales were off 0.9% (+2.2% y/y) after a 0.4% gain. Clothing & accessory store sales dropped 0.7% (+4.7% y/y) following a 0.4% rise.
Reflecting lower prices, gasoline service station sales declined 5.1% (-0.2% y/y), about as they did in November. To the upside, building materials & garden equipment store sales improved 0.3% (1.4% y/y) after a 1.5% decline.
Sales of nondiscretionary items also were weak last month as health & personal care product store sales decreased 2.0% (+1.6% y/y) after a 1.3% gain. Food & beverage store sales declined 0.4% (+1.4% y/y) following a 0.1% rise.
Even the inclination to dine out waned. Restaurant & drinking establishment sales declined 0.7% (+4.0% y/y), the same as in November.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -1.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| Excluding Autos | -1.8 | -0.0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 |
| Retail Sales | -1.3 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
| Retail Less Autos | -2.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| Gasoline Stations | -5.1 | -4.4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 13.1 | 8.8 | -5.7 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.7 | -0.7 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 5.6 |
