The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 3.0% during the last month, but remained 12.1% below the prior year's level. Gains were broad-based, but notable for metals and crude oil.

Metals prices increased 7.2% last month led by a 17.6% m/m rise in steel scrap prices and a 9.1% increase in zinc prices. Copper scrap prices also rose a firm 4.3% and aluminum prices gained 1.1%. Except for steel scrap, however, prices remained sharply below the year-ago level. A 4.1% m/m gain in prices in the crude oil & benzene category also represented some recovery, but prices also remained well below last year's level. Crude oil prices rose 7.4% m/m to $53.96 per barrel, up from the $45.02 year-end low. They remained below the $75.05 peak early in October. Prices for the petro-chemical benzene recovered 6.9% during the last month, but remained one-third below the year-ago level. Prices in the miscellaneous group rose 1.1% m/m led by a 3.8% gain (3.5% y/y) in natural rubber prices. Framing lumber prices also gained 2.1% and structural panel prices improved 1.1%, but remained more than one-quarter below last year. In the textile group, prices were little changed m/m and down 2.7% y/y. Cotton prices rose 0.8% m/m (-7.2% y/y) while burlap prices gained 1.4% m/m (-13.4% y/y).

Improvement in industrial commodity prices followed a 1.1% December gain in factory sector output (3.3% y/y). The consensus forecast from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) calls for a 2.7% rise in industrial output during all of 2019. During the last ten years, there has been a 66% correlation between the y/y change in industrial commodity prices and the y/y change in factory sector output.

Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases. The NABE forecast is in the SURVEYS database.