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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips in January
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Euro Area Inflation Persists in Negative Territory
Euro area inflation is negative on a year-over-year basis for five months in a row...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 7, 2019
Consumer credit outstanding increased $16.54 billion (4.9% y/y) to $4.010 trillion during December following a $22.40 billion November rise, revised from $22.16 billion. A $17.5 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the past ten years, there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y gain in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Nonrevolving credit usage increased $14.83 billion (5.6% y/y) during December. Federal government borrowing (42% of the total) rose 8.0% y/y. Borrowing from depository institutions (25% of the total) rose an improved 4.3% y/y but finance company balances (18% of the total) declined 1.1% y/y. Credit union loans (13% of the total) strengthened 14.3% y/y.
Revolving consumer credit balances increased a lessened $1.74 billion (2.8% y/y) in December. Balances at depository institutions (88% of the total) rose a greatly lessened 3.6% y/y. Growth in borrowing from credit unions (6% of the total) also slackened to 7.2% y/y. Finance company balances (2% of the total) fell 10.8% y/y, while nonfinancial business borrowing (2% of the total) held steady y/y.
During Q4'18, student loan debt increased 5.3% y/y, down from a peak 14.7% y/y rise in 2008. Motor vehicle purchase borrowing rose a steady 3.7% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec y/y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $16.54 bil. | $22.40 bil. | $25.87 bil. | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% |
Nonrevolving | 14.83 | 17.57 | 15.90 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 6.9 |
Revolving | 1.74 | 4.84 | 9.98 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 6.8 |