Recent Updates
- Saudi Arabia: Cement Deliveries (Nov)
- Iraq: CBI Purchase of FX from MOF (Oct)
- US: Import/Export Prices, Advance Retail Sales (Nov)
- Services Sector Survey (Oct)
- Germany: BOP Detail (Oct), External Position of the BBK (Nov), BBK Curren
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Import and Export Prices Increase
Import prices rose 0.2% during November (-1.3% y/y)...
U.S. Business Inventories Rise While Sales Slip
Total business inventories increased 0.2% (3.1% y/y) during October...
Friday 13 of December 2019: An unlucky day for Japan’s Tankan
The manufacturing barometer, which is considered the bellwether of this index, fell to zero in Q4 2019 from 5 in Q3...
U.S. Financial Accounts Show Larger Government Borrowing, Somewhat Less Household Borrowing
Total borrowing in U.S. financial markets rose to $4,266 billion in Q3 2019...
U.S. Producer Prices Are Unexpectedly Tame; Core Prices Weaken
The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged during November (1.1% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller February 4, 2019
Manufacturers' orders declined 0.6% (+4.1% y/y) during November following an unrevised 2.1% October fall. The Action Economics Forecast survey looked for a 0.4% rise.
Durable goods orders rebounded 0.7% m/m (5.3% y/y) after a 2.1% decline. Orders for defense and civilian aircraft recovered following sharp October declines. Excluding transportation altogether, new orders for durable goods fell 0.4% (+4.8% y/y). Strength in orders for metals was offset by a decline in machinery.
Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) fell 1.9% (+2.9% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. A 9.3% decline in shipments from petroleum refineries led the decline (+5.2% y/y). Basic chemical shipments rose 0.9% (3.9% y/y) and food product shipments gained 0.2% (0.3% y/y). Apparel shipments fell 1.2% (+6.9% y/y). Shipments of durable goods improved 0.7% (6.2% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments rose 1.0% (5.6% y/y) but machinery shipments slipped 0.4% (+2.7% y/y).
Unfilled orders from the factory sector eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Durable goods unfilled orders eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y). Transportation sector order backlogs declined 0.3% (+4.4% y/y) but total unfilled orders less transportation rose 0.2% (4.9% y/y). Unfilled orders of machinery were little changed (3.0% y/y) while computer & electronic order backlogs rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y).
Inventories in the manufacturing sector slipped 0.1% (+4.2% y/y). Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% (4.9% y/y). Machinery inventories gained 0.4% (5.3% y/y) while inventories of computers & electronic products rose 0.3% (1.1% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.9% (8.7% y/y) while transportation sector inventories gained 0.2% (3.4% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories declined 1.0% (+3.0% y/y) as petroleum refinery inventories fell 8.4% (+1.5% y/y). Basic chemical inventories rose 0.6% (5.0% y/y) and paper product inventories improved 0.1% (1.8% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics Forecasts survey is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -0.6 | -2.1 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | -2.9 | -8.2 |
| Shipments | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| Inventories | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
