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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Are Little Changed
The U.S. pump price for gasoline eased to $2.60 per gallon (-7.9% y/y) last week...
FIBER: Industrial Materials Prices Remain Weak
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index declined 3.2% during the last four weeks...
Japan's Trade Deficit Remains as Exports Sag
Japan's trade deficit came in at 127 billion yen in July, an enlargement from the 34 billion yen in June...
U.S. Housing Starts Decline as Multi-family Starts Weaken
Housing starts declined 4.0% (+0.6% y/y) to 1.191 million (SAAR)...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Improves Slightly
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose to 66 in August...
by Tom Moeller February 4, 2019
Manufacturers' orders declined 0.6% (+4.1% y/y) during November following an unrevised 2.1% October fall. The Action Economics Forecast survey looked for a 0.4% rise.
Durable goods orders rebounded 0.7% m/m (5.3% y/y) after a 2.1% decline. Orders for defense and civilian aircraft recovered following sharp October declines. Excluding transportation altogether, new orders for durable goods fell 0.4% (+4.8% y/y). Strength in orders for metals was offset by a decline in machinery.
Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) fell 1.9% (+2.9% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. A 9.3% decline in shipments from petroleum refineries led the decline (+5.2% y/y). Basic chemical shipments rose 0.9% (3.9% y/y) and food product shipments gained 0.2% (0.3% y/y). Apparel shipments fell 1.2% (+6.9% y/y). Shipments of durable goods improved 0.7% (6.2% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments rose 1.0% (5.6% y/y) but machinery shipments slipped 0.4% (+2.7% y/y).
Unfilled orders from the factory sector eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Durable goods unfilled orders eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y). Transportation sector order backlogs declined 0.3% (+4.4% y/y) but total unfilled orders less transportation rose 0.2% (4.9% y/y). Unfilled orders of machinery were little changed (3.0% y/y) while computer & electronic order backlogs rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y).
Inventories in the manufacturing sector slipped 0.1% (+4.2% y/y). Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% (4.9% y/y). Machinery inventories gained 0.4% (5.3% y/y) while inventories of computers & electronic products rose 0.3% (1.1% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.9% (8.7% y/y) while transportation sector inventories gained 0.2% (3.4% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories declined 1.0% (+3.0% y/y) as petroleum refinery inventories fell 8.4% (+1.5% y/y). Basic chemical inventories rose 0.6% (5.0% y/y) and paper product inventories improved 0.1% (1.8% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics Forecasts survey is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -0.6 | -2.1 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | -2.9 | -8.2 |
| Shipments | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| Inventories | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
