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Economy in Brief
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Up
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index edged up 0.5% w/w (5.4% y/y) in the week ended February 26...
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Weaken in February
Sales of light vehicles declined 5.6% during February (-6.7% y/y) to 15.88 million units...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.71 per gallon (11.9% y/y) in the week ended March 1...
Post Covid-19 Turbulence Rocks and Weakens German Retail Sales
German and other European retail sales have been put through a sort of test of fire in the wake of the covid-19 virus arrival...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 4, 2019
Manufacturers' orders declined 0.6% (+4.1% y/y) during November following an unrevised 2.1% October fall. The Action Economics Forecast survey looked for a 0.4% rise.
Durable goods orders rebounded 0.7% m/m (5.3% y/y) after a 2.1% decline. Orders for defense and civilian aircraft recovered following sharp October declines. Excluding transportation altogether, new orders for durable goods fell 0.4% (+4.8% y/y). Strength in orders for metals was offset by a decline in machinery.
Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) fell 1.9% (+2.9% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. A 9.3% decline in shipments from petroleum refineries led the decline (+5.2% y/y). Basic chemical shipments rose 0.9% (3.9% y/y) and food product shipments gained 0.2% (0.3% y/y). Apparel shipments fell 1.2% (+6.9% y/y). Shipments of durable goods improved 0.7% (6.2% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments rose 1.0% (5.6% y/y) but machinery shipments slipped 0.4% (+2.7% y/y).
Unfilled orders from the factory sector eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Durable goods unfilled orders eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y). Transportation sector order backlogs declined 0.3% (+4.4% y/y) but total unfilled orders less transportation rose 0.2% (4.9% y/y). Unfilled orders of machinery were little changed (3.0% y/y) while computer & electronic order backlogs rose 0.5% (3.7% y/y).
Inventories in the manufacturing sector slipped 0.1% (+4.2% y/y). Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% (4.9% y/y). Machinery inventories gained 0.4% (5.3% y/y) while inventories of computers & electronic products rose 0.3% (1.1% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.9% (8.7% y/y) while transportation sector inventories gained 0.2% (3.4% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories declined 1.0% (+3.0% y/y) as petroleum refinery inventories fell 8.4% (+1.5% y/y). Basic chemical inventories rose 0.6% (5.0% y/y) and paper product inventories improved 0.1% (1.8% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics Forecasts survey is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -0.6 | -2.1 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | -2.9 | -8.2 |
| Shipments | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| Inventories | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
