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Economy in Brief

State Coincident Indexes
by Charles Steindel  January 25, 2019

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's December estimates of state coincident activity continue to show a fairly moderate range of growth among the states, with 34 (2 more than the initial results for November) seeing gains between 2% and 4% over the prior 12 months. However, both Florida and Texas had increases a touch above 4%. New Mexico had the largest increase, at 6.1%. Once again, Maine and Hawaii were in the bottom spots—Hawaii's increase was a barely positive .1%.

The 3 months ending in December showed some mildly greater dispersion than was the case in November. 21 states recorded increases from .5% to 1%, down from the 23 in that range one month earlier. rates consistent with 12-month growth of 2% to 4%. 15 states had larger gains; 14 states had lower ones: many of these are located in the center of the nation, ranging from Louisiana to North Dakota on one axis, and West Virginia to Colorado on anther (however, the increased in some of these states were actually .49%).. The fastest growing states were in the Northeast: Massachusetts, Maryland, and Delaware, while only 2 Western states (Nevada and Washington) were reported to have had increases above 1%. 3 states had declines: Once again, Hawaii and Maine, but also Montana (the Philly Fed rounded its .05% drop to zero in the map in the release)—indicating that the mainland West is not a region of uniform fast growth.

In the November-December period 6 states—two more than in the preliminary October-November report—had drops in their index. Maine, at least, avoided a drop, though its index was unchanged. Hawaii, however, had the largest decline in the nation. South Dakota, had the largest increase, while the trio of Northeast states with strong 3-month gains (Massachusetts, Maryland, and Delaware) followed.

The December figures suggest that the move toward convergent growth across the nation may be ebbing, with, perhaps, some weakness in the Mississippi basin (usually not viewed as an economic region: comparabilities between West Virginia and Colorado seem fairly limited).

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