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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller January 17, 2019
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12 from an unrevised 216,000 during the prior week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 223,000 claims. The four-week moving average slipped to 220,750 from 221,750.
The latest reading of initial claims covers the survey period for December nonfarm payrolls. There was a 4,000 decline (-1.8%) from the November period. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased to 1.737 million (-10.1% y/y) in the week ended January 5 from 1.719 million the previous week. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose to 1.729 million from 1.721 million. It was the highest reading since mid-August of last year.
The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2% in the week ended January 5, after hitting a record low of 1.1% in November. The figure compares the number of people receiving benefits to the number covered by unemployment insurance.
Insured unemployment rates vary widely by state. During the week ending December 29, the lowest rates were in North Carolina (0.44%), Florida (0.44%), Virginia (0.63%) and Tennessee (0.67%). Higher rates were in Pennsylvania (2.24%), Massachusetts (2.28%), Connecticut (2.88%) and New Jersey (2.74%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 01/12/19 | 01/05/19 | 12/29/18 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 213 | 216 | 233 | -2.6 | 221 | 243 | 264 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,737 | 1,719 | -10.1 | 1,763 | 1,964 | 2,143 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |