Recent Updates
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
- US: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey by State (Mar)
- US: New Residential Construction (Apr)
- Canada: CPI (Apr)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller January 16, 2019
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index increased 13.5% (1.4% y/y) during the week ended January 11 following a nearly one-quarter rise during the prior week. Applications to refinance a mortgage increased 18.7% but remained down 10.8% y/y. Applications to purchase a home jumped 9.1% (11.8% y/y) after three straight weeks of decline.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage held steady w/w at 4.25%, down from a 4.71% high early in November. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan held at 4.87%. The rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan was little-changed at 4.62%, and for adjustable 5-year mortgages the effective interest rate rose to 4.20%.
The average mortgage loan size surged to a record $328,100 (17.0% y/y). For purchases, the average loan size increased to $306,200 (1.7% y/y). For refinancings, the average loan size rose to another record of $353,100 (35.1% y/y).
Applications for fixed-rate loans fell 2.9% y/y while applications for adjustable-rate loans surged by more than three-quarters y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 01/11/19 | 01/04/1 9 | 12/28/18 | Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 13.5 | 23.5 | -8.5 | 1.4 | -10.4 | -17.8 | 15.6 |
Purchase | 9.1 | 16.5 | -7.6 | 11.8 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 |
Refinancing | 18.7 | 35.3 | -10.6 | -10.8 | -24.3 | -34.0 | 17.3 |
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.40 | 3.89 (Jan.'18) | 4.35 | 3.59 | 3.22 |