Recent Updates
- US: FHFA HPI (Nov), S&P Case Shiller HPI (Nov)
- US: Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook (Jan)
- IMF: IMF World Economic Outlook (Jan 2021)
- Mexico: Service Sector, Retail & Wholesale Trade (Nov)
- Israel: Exports of Services (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
German IFO Gauge Weakens Again
The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Up in December; 2020 Sales Are Highest Since 2006
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes rose 0.7% (22.2% y/y) during December...
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 16, 2019
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo rose to 58 during January after falling sharply during December to 56, its lowest level since May 2015. The figure compared to the expansion high of 74 in December of 2017. Expectations had been for an index level of 56 in the Informa Global Markets Survey. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years, there has been a 49% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in new home sales.
The index of present sales conditions rose to 63 this month from 61 during December. It remained down from its peak of 80 in December 2017. The index of expected conditions in the next six months increased to 64 from 61. The recent peak in this index was 80 in February of last year.
The index of traffic of prospective buyers rose to 44 from 43, which was the lowest level in just over three years. The index peaked at 58 in December 2017.
The rise in the January index was driven by a sharp m/m increase in the Northeast to 49, but it remained down sharply y/y. The index for the West rose moderately to 70, but was below 83 twelve months earlier. For the South, the index held steady at 61, the lowest point since July 2016. The index for the Midwest fell sharply to 49, the weakest level since May 2015 and down from the peak of 76 in December 2017.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results six over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next months and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
National Association of Home Builders | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 58 | 56 | 60 | 72 | 67 | 68 | 61 |
Single-Family Sales: Present | 63 | 61 | 67 | 79 | 73 | 74 | 67 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 64 | 61 | 65 | 78 | 74 | 76 | 67 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 44 | 43 | 45 | 54 | 50 | 50 | 45 |