Recent Updates
- Australia: International Trade by State (Dec-Prelim)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (Jan)
- Lebanon: Port of Beirut Statistics (Dec)
- Canada: Retail Trade (Nov)
- UK Regional: Scotland: Walker Fraser Steele HPI (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 9, 2019
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index jumped 23.5% (-7.0% y/y) during the week ended January 4 following three consecutive weeks of decline. Applications to purchase a home jumped 16.5% (5.2% y/y), also after falling for three straight weeks. Applications to refinance a mortgage increased by roughly one-third w/w, but remained down by nearly one-quarter y/y.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage declined w/w to 4.25%, down from a 4.71% high early in November. The rate remained above the low of 3.01% averaged in July 2016. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell to 4.88%. The rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan eased to 4.60%, and for adjustable 5-year mortgages, the effective interest rate fell to 4.17%.
The average mortgage loan size surged to a record $318,400 (15.4% y/y). For purchases, the average loan size nudged up to $300,300 (-0.1% y/y). For refinancings, the average loan size spiked to $339,800 (33.8% y/y), which was by far a record.
Applications for fixed-rate loans fell 10.4% y/y while applications for adjustable-rate loans surged by more than one-half y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 01/04/09 | 12/28/18 | 12/21/18 | Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 23.5 | -8.5 | -1.4 | -7.0 | -10.4 | -17.8 | 15.6 |
Purchase | 16.5 | -7.6 | -0.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 |
Refinancing | 35.3 | -10.6 | -1.9 | -21.5 | -24.3 | -34.0 | 17.3 |
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 4.25 | 4.40 | 4.43 | 3.89 (Jan.'18) | 4.35 | 3.59 | 3.22 |