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- Euro area: PPI (Jan)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.71 per gallon (11.9% y/y) in the week ended March 1...
Post Covid-19 Turbulence Rocks and Weakens German Retail Sales
German and other European retail sales have been put through a sort of test of fire in the wake of the covid-19 virus arrival...
ISM Manufacturing Index Improves in February as Prices Continue to Strengthen
Factory sector activity recovered last month following moderate weakening in January...
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 8, 2019
Consumers continue to expand their credit balances as employment increases. Consumer credit outstanding rose $22.16 billion during November following a $24.97 billion October gain, revised from $25.38 billion. Together, these two increases were the largest of the economic expansion. A $15.8 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the past ten years, there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y gain in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Nonrevolving credit usage increased $17.37 billion (5.1% y/y) during November. Gains here have been strengthening this year. Federal government borrowing (42% of the total) rose 8.3% y/y. Borrowing from depository institutions (25% of the total) rose a slightly improved 3.8% y/y but finance company balances (18% of the total) eased 0.8% y/y. Credit union loans (13% of the total) rose a strengthened 9.8% y/y.
Revolving consumer credit balances increased $4.76 billion in November (3.0% y/y). Balances at depository institutions (88% of the total) rose a greatly lessened 4.1% y/y. Borrowing from credit unions (6% of the total) rose 8.2% y/y. Finance company balances (2% of the total) fell 11.9% y/y, while nonfinancial business borrowing (2% of the total) held steady y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov y/y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $22.16 bil. | $24.97 bil. | $9.64 bil. | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 3.0% |
Nonrevolving | 17.37 | 15.63 | 9.67 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 |
Revolving | 4.76 | 9.34 | -0.03 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 2.1 |