Recent Updates
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
- US: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey by State (Mar)
- US: New Residential Construction (Apr)
- Canada: CPI (Apr)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Charles Steindel December 27, 2018
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity in November shows further signs of converging growth across the nation. 32 states have seen gains between 2% and 4% over the last 12 months. Florida, with an increase of 4.04%, was the only one of the four largest states to see growth outside that range. The outliers are comparable to those reported for October, with New Mexico seeing the largest increase (6.3%), and Hawaii very near the bottom with a .5% gain (Maine was a tad softer than Hawaii, showing that geographic extremes can sometimes report comparable figures).
Over the 3 months ending in November 23 states recorded increases from .5% to .98%; rates consistent with 12-month growth of 2% to 4%. The faster-growing states were to some extent a geographic medley, including two (Florida and New York) of the very largest states. Interestingly, most New England states were also in this category—though the rapid growth reported for New Hampshire and Rhode Island is doubtlessly related to spillovers from advances in the Boston area, while Connecticut's sharp gain could be related to growth in New York (New Jersey's increase was a bit short of 1%). In any event, the strength in the Northeast is further confirmation that national growth is no longer a byproduct of gains in the West. On the low side, Hawaii, Maine, and North Dakota registered declines in this period.
The last monthly tick (October-November) shows, again, Hawaii, Maine, and North Dakota (joined by Pennsylvania) on the negative side. 8 states (Massachusetts, Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, Delaware, Vermont, South Dakota, and New Hampshire) has increases of .5% or higher. It seems like conditions have been strong in the Plains and for Boston-area commuters; perhaps the latter case shows that World Series victories do provide general economic benefits!