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Economy in Brief
Import Prices Continue Their Decline; Both Oil and Nonoil Prices Move Lower
Import prices fell a greater-than-expected 0.5% during January (-1.7% year-on-year)...
Empire State Manufacturing Activity Improves Modestly
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 8.8 during February...
U.S. Retail Sales Exhibit Extensive Weakness
Total retail sales declined 1.2% (+2.3% y/y) during December...
U.S. Producer Prices Decline; Core PPI Rises
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index edged down 0.1% for the second consecutive month in January (+2.0% y/y)...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Edge Back Higher
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 239,000 in the week ended February 9...
by Tom Moeller December 21, 2018
New orders for durable goods rebounded last month. Overall durable goods orders increased 0.8% (5.3% y/y) during November following a 4.3% October decline. A 1.5% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for defense aircraft & parts led the gain with a nearly one-third increase, and they rose by three-quarters y/y. Orders for civilian aircraft also were firm and posted a 6.7% rise. Orders for motor vehicles parts eased 0.2% (+8.7% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Excluding the transportation sector entirely, durable goods bookings slipped 0.3% (+4.9% y/y) after a 0.4% increase.
In the capital goods sector, the gain in civilian aircraft lifted nondefense orders by 0.7%. Elsewhere, orders weakened. Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft fell 0.6% (+6.5% y/y), the third decline in the last four months.
Increased orders for metals accounted for the remainder of last month's rise in orders overall. Primary metals orders rose 1.0% (9.1% y/y) and fabricated metals increased 0.5% (5.1% y/y). Working the other way, machinery bookings declined 1.7% (+7.2 y/y) after three consecutive 0.2% gains. Orders for electrical equipment & appliances fell 0.7% (+5.7% y/y) after a 1.1% rise. Computer & electronic product orders held steady (6.4% y/y) after a 2.9% jump. Within that grouping, communication product orders rose 0.8% (5.8% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.7% during November (6.2% y/y) following a 0.4% easing. Excluding the transportation sector, however, shipments held steady (4.6% y/y) after a 3.3% rise. Unfilled orders for durable goods eased 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) and excluding transportation, order backlogs rose 0.2% (4.9% y/y). Inventories of durable goods rose 0.3% (4.7% y/y) after a 0.2% improvement. Excluding transportation, inventories increased 0.3% (5.4% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.8 | -4.3 | -0.0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | -1.7 | -5.0 |
Transportation | 2.9 | -12.3 | 0.9 | 6.1 | 3.4 | -0.7 | -6.3 |
Total Excluding Transportation | -0.3 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 4.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 | -4.2 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 0.7 | -4.7 | -3.2 | 0.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 | -11.8 |
Excluding Aircraft | -0.6 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -4.5 | -5.5 |
Shipments | 0.7 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | -2.4 | -0.8 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
Inventories | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -3.0 | 0.9 |