Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Feb-final), Chicago PMI (Feb),Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Jan)
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Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 20, 2018
Initial unemployment insurance applications increased to 214,000 (-12.4% y/y) during the week ended December 15 from an unrevised 206,000 during the prior week. Initial claims remained near the lowest level since 1969. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims eased to 222,000.
The latest claims figure covers the survey period for December nonfarm payrolls, and there was a 4.9% decline from the November period. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.688 million (-13.4% y/y) in the week ending December 8 from 1.661 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose to 1.673 million.
The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%, near the record low. The insured unemployment figures date back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending December 1, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.40%), North Carolina (0.43%), Nebraska (0.44%), Indiana (0.49%) and Florida (0.44%). The highest rates were in Illinois (1.53%), Connecticut (1.78%), California (1.92%), New Jersey (2.06%) and Alaska (3.10%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 0.96% in Ohio, 0.93% in Texas, 1.41% in New York, 0.57% in Georgia and 0.52% in Virginia. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 12/15/18 | 12/08/18 | 12/01/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 214 | 206 | 233 | -12.4 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,688 | 1,661 | -13.4 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.3 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |